AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism falls for fourth straight week

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market fell for the fourth straight week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism, meanwhile, is above 30% for the first time in over two months.

- Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 2.8 percentage points to 30.6%.

- This is the highest level of optimism recorded since June 2, 2022 (32.0%).

- Despite recent increases, bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 38.0% for the 37th consecutive week.

- Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 1.6 percentage points to 30.6%.

- Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 13th time in 15 weeks.

- Expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 1.2 percentage points to 38.9%.

- Pessimism was last lower on June 2, 2022 (37.1%).

- It is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 36th time out of the past 37 weeks.

Both bullish and bearish sentiment as well as the bull-bear spread are currently within their typical ranges.

Continued volatility in the major stock indexes along with inflation, corporate earnings and increased chatter about the possibility of a recession are all likely weighing on individual investors’ short-term expectations for the stock market. Also influencing sentiment are monetary policy, the coronavirus pandemic, politics and the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

- Measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market short term.

- Individuals are polled from the AAII Web site on a weekly basis.