$BOIL.US$ I agree with Auhager’s point of view 110%.…with ...
$BOIL.US$
I agree with Auhager’s point of view 110%.…with a few caveats…
As you may have read in my previous posts, I got my face ripped off in both of those major drops from the 120’s down to the low mid 90’s ,…. Then again when it tanked from there to the low 60’s. So I’ve certainly had my share of come uppins in this thing. I knew a lot less about it then, than I know now too. I have educated myself to the teeth on who’s who, who’s doing what and trying to find patterns in institutional buying and selling.
This seems to be where the patterns are showing up these days. In theoretical conjecture, we know what all the bad to worst case scenario news is that makes this market soar. we also know what will bring and end to that as well. We got a nice big fat dose of that in June. Knowing what the fundamentals and macro factors are in the market and staying way way on top of them to the best of my ability has been helpful beyond belief. I watch this stock from 3:00a.m. CST to 7-8 pm CST every single day all day long rarely taking more than 10-20 minutes between glances and charting updates where applicable. It’s scary for sure, but most of the time ,I have a fair idea as to why the market is doing what it is doing or whether it’s just going through the motions of trading between rising or falling trend lines until new fundamentals show up..
Here’s a chart looking at the next few periods and wondering how it may or may not bounce off my trend line?……hmmmm…"
or not.. cant get it to paste… will retry…….
But….one undeniable advantage that I simply cannot ignore. Europe is willing to buy everything we are willing to sell them for the foreseeable future for what appears to be at least the next year. And price negotiation isn’t really an issue as supply is ample, though nonetheless definitively limited significantly below their needs. And they are paying not 10 -20% more than our domestic market rate. They are paying 400 - 900% higher for their current supplies from Putin. So price elasticity is remarkably tilted in our favor as we re start shipping out of the Freeport Terminal in the next 2 months or so ramping our massive export commitments back up to Europe to pre Freeport explosion levels and beyond………... And they’ll be ecstatic to have the supply, further distancing their potential dependency on Russia, and we’ll be happy as a lark to discount their current outrageous Russian Mmbtu rate significantly and still make a staggering profit selling it to them. And again, even if Russia pulls out of Ukraine tomorrow, once Europe is satisfied that the US can deliver a significant percentage of their LNG needs on a consistent basis,….. Europe is going to have two words for Putin’s boorish attempts to glad hand them back into their dependency on Russian energy that got them in the mess they’re currently facing right now….. and those words are likely to resemble something along the lines of F U….
So the most basic of the upward trajectory of the fundamentals are going to be hard to break over the next several months without something that no one’s even imagined as a fantastical possibility yet that I can see.
Not impossible,…. But I like the odds way better than I like like the odds on almost any of the other stocks we have running, that during this economically volatile period, are often times a craps shoot on blind hopes of earnings or other blind fundamentals that I have no way of knowing anything about, outside of some sort of insider informtion, that could whack them every bit as much as gas can if I’m in tech. Take NVidia for example. Down almost 9% (today Monday August 8th).. Great stock. solid cashflow etc. market leader, best in class. Nonetheless, they guide lower on a few important sectors,( thT 8 have no wa6 of knowing anything about until After the news has broken and the stock has gone into free fall. And it drags down others with it. Again take. lookat Palantir, another great comany, ( way undervalued in my ignorant opinion), nonetheless, down almost 14% ( again on Monday August8th.). in most other sectors, its still a bit of a. rap shot from day to day. Most everything else isn’t quite sure yet where to go. And fixed income assets are simply not pulling anywhere near their weight.
Make no mistake about it, I’ve been down 12-18% in a single day from time to time,(full disclosure ….today Im down 10% ) but the fundamentals that those swings are occuring on are in the bigger picture of things,( which remeber isnt the next 60-90 days…… its the next 140 - 200 days …….. thats where the rubber meets the road and we find out whos calling balls and strikes. These other little news flashes about a nicer week of weather here in the US amonst our inferno of a burning planet are comparatively insignificant in their impact on the overall fundamental market direction over the longer term, and sadly, when those sppokified bearish blurbs docomes out,….. it’s almost invariably the small to medium size retail traders that are panicking to get out of the market as is indicated within market balance per size sector . Its almost as if theyve forgotten why they got in in the firt place. Did theyreally have some knowledge that they were going to be ble to jump in and jumpout with little tono volatility exposure? Or when that news came out, do they hve some insight that the market i destined to abandon the longer fundamental story whicj hasnt changed one ayota since June? but now thy figure if its down 6% today.,…. its gottab goin down 16% to tomorrow and on and on etc. This is emotional trading, and this market will eat emotional traders for a snack.
The large and especially the extra large institutions are rarely the panic stricken in these one off moves. that could happen once , maybe even twice in a week. And as cliche as it sounds, these are dips that unless the fundamentals have significant foreword looking outlook changes, are often times that present as excellent buying opportunities, as this ETF often times will reclaim all or more of that territory in a single session, or just a few, unless it’s in a bit of a bear cycle in which case it takes its time a little more subtly, which is fine by me, as when there is any positive guidance that comes out, its not ridiculously overbought and usually has plenty of room and investment interest to rip higher and roar upward …But since it low in June, even with all its volatility, it never ceases to amaze me,…. this market and the people who are playing in this sandbox are pretty transparent as to where they believe this thing is ultimately going over the next few months into the winter. You can see who’s who after a while and how they trade watching level two. Theres a guy I call Mr 6100……be ause for whatever reason, hes always arbitraging lo5s of 6100 shares on bothsides of the market, all the time and his spreads change constantly with the days volatility. Hes always in it. and i enever seen him simply on one side. of the market. …ive seen him weighted heavier tothe buy side, but never to the sell side. Thenthere are other “” marked players as I like to call them. watch them long enough and you get a feel as to whos doing what and “ in general” what theyve got on their mind as far as their generalin lination toward market direction. Make no mistake about it, theytrade fast and furious and can change their minds about direction and velocity just a sue as anyon else can. But the one Ive noticed….. They play to stay, and rarely disappear from the market because the markeet took a beat down. They are still there, doing their do. waiting for the same ting any other long termer is waiting for as well, the onset of the Freeport LNG terminal coming back on line gushing gas back toEurope, along with the onset of crisp frost morning reminding everyone that the arctic northern cold wont stayaway for much longer as the cooling temperatures require people to start turning up the thermostats
To be sure…….I don’t take anything for granted, and Iknow better than to claim I know exactly what any market is going to do. But of all the trading I have done over my life time, I have never seen such a one side,, ….. lopsided trading opportunity based on fundamental information that is going to be extremely difficult to dislodge or displace between now and the beginning of the year. Ifeel a bit like Michael Burry did when he dug into all the data on the derivative loan packages that as far as he ws concerned showed only one thing.….. a market about to go ballistic one way. The data was clear as the day is long. But the market didnt seem to think so, or think it was very important until way after hed staked his position based on his beliefs…..And he got his ass handed to him day after day for months, to the point where everyone thought he was insane, he was being fired, sued for gross negligence. etc etc…… But none of those things changed the data……And when the data’s relevancy to marketplace was finally allowed to show itself to the world, as you cant hide from reality forever……well, we all know what happened. no two markets are the same, nor are the stars that guide them……..
But, when those rare opportunities present themselves, and you have empirical evidence in your data, sometimes you’ve just gotta roll the hard six. But like you’ve appropriately noted, there are no ways to guarantee any kind of outcome in any stock let alone one with as volatile a nature as this one. But…..quite simply… I like my odds…. alot.
So I pay attention to it all. ….. Macro, Micro, technicals, opinion ( of qualified players, agencies and governments ). And I leave Nothing unchecked for more than a short while, ducking out after outsized moves, and working myself back in, often times at a far better position,… and sometimes at a worse position, But, make no mistake about it,… waiting around praying for that perfect entry point in this beast,….. is a pipe dream. ……..You’ve gotta be in it to win it and you have to catch to wave.
For me that means quickly but carefully evaluating my best educated guess as to where I believe the technicals will allow the stock to pull back to. But there is little waiting, as it all happens far quicker than anything I’ve ever dealt with before. But being disciplined and staying true and honest in forming my technical trend lines has proven invaluable to me here more than any other security I’ve ever traded. As I’ve bought within pennys of various bottoms more often than I ever thought was even possible. That only came about as a result of ditching my fear and trading this thing as if it were an emotionless strategic game, knowing that there were going to be some big days on both sides of the ledger.
But trading from the vantage point of a peer rather than a deer has allowed me to keep from freaking out when it dumps for no reason, and to ring the register on outsized moves and prepare to pounce based on the belief in everything I’ve learned. My win to loss ratio in trading this EFT has gone from 43% to 68% ……I can’t speak to anybody else’s objectives etc. , but most casinos would kill to have those odds.
Again, I don’t claim to be anything more than anyone else. I’ve just committed myself to incessantly educating myself as to why this thing does what it does and to what degree based on various types of fundamental changes within the market. Though I’ve put an awful lot into it, im just as happy to call it luck. All I know is that the more I educate myself, the luckier I get…..go figure🥸
I just hope other people can find it within themselves to maybe put a little something into this potential opportunity and see if they don’t discover some new things about their own trading that they never really knew lay dormant within them if they love trading the way I do. If I were listening to me right now, Id realize that just since the time I fist published thisarticle last week, this thing is down almost 14.5%. I dont know othe rpeople look at these things, but when I see something I reuly believe in that has given me No substantive reason to change that belief, and I see it drop like this, or Nvidia, or Palantir……. I buy more,….. usually alot more,….. and I did just that on all three and a few others. ( for your records….this is Monday August 8, 2022
It’s definitely NOT for everybody, but boy, what a rush….. and even if this thing goes back down to its June low again, I will be up almost 20%….. not bad for the risk to reward ratio. In any and every case, each individual should do their own research and homework, and take risks commensurate with their own unique investment goals. I am definitely NOT an advisor of any kind and no such opinions that I share should be construed as anything other than my own opinion based on my own portfolio’s risk tolerance and structure.
Best of luck to all😃
Please keep the comments coming in. I really like hearing the viewpoints of others regardless of where they stand🤓And I reallyhope to se some of you on the other side of rise at or beyond year end, so we all have something to laugh (or hopefully not to cry about),….but by God either way itll sure as hell be worthy of a drink🍻
Cheers
I agree with Auhager’s point of view 110%.…with a few caveats…
As you may have read in my previous posts, I got my face ripped off in both of those major drops from the 120’s down to the low mid 90’s ,…. Then again when it tanked from there to the low 60’s. So I’ve certainly had my share of come uppins in this thing. I knew a lot less about it then, than I know now too. I have educated myself to the teeth on who’s who, who’s doing what and trying to find patterns in institutional buying and selling.
This seems to be where the patterns are showing up these days. In theoretical conjecture, we know what all the bad to worst case scenario news is that makes this market soar. we also know what will bring and end to that as well. We got a nice big fat dose of that in June. Knowing what the fundamentals and macro factors are in the market and staying way way on top of them to the best of my ability has been helpful beyond belief. I watch this stock from 3:00a.m. CST to 7-8 pm CST every single day all day long rarely taking more than 10-20 minutes between glances and charting updates where applicable. It’s scary for sure, but most of the time ,I have a fair idea as to why the market is doing what it is doing or whether it’s just going through the motions of trading between rising or falling trend lines until new fundamentals show up..
Here’s a chart looking at the next few periods and wondering how it may or may not bounce off my trend line?……hmmmm…"
or not.. cant get it to paste… will retry…….
But….one undeniable advantage that I simply cannot ignore. Europe is willing to buy everything we are willing to sell them for the foreseeable future for what appears to be at least the next year. And price negotiation isn’t really an issue as supply is ample, though nonetheless definitively limited significantly below their needs. And they are paying not 10 -20% more than our domestic market rate. They are paying 400 - 900% higher for their current supplies from Putin. So price elasticity is remarkably tilted in our favor as we re start shipping out of the Freeport Terminal in the next 2 months or so ramping our massive export commitments back up to Europe to pre Freeport explosion levels and beyond………... And they’ll be ecstatic to have the supply, further distancing their potential dependency on Russia, and we’ll be happy as a lark to discount their current outrageous Russian Mmbtu rate significantly and still make a staggering profit selling it to them. And again, even if Russia pulls out of Ukraine tomorrow, once Europe is satisfied that the US can deliver a significant percentage of their LNG needs on a consistent basis,….. Europe is going to have two words for Putin’s boorish attempts to glad hand them back into their dependency on Russian energy that got them in the mess they’re currently facing right now….. and those words are likely to resemble something along the lines of F U….
So the most basic of the upward trajectory of the fundamentals are going to be hard to break over the next several months without something that no one’s even imagined as a fantastical possibility yet that I can see.
Not impossible,…. But I like the odds way better than I like like the odds on almost any of the other stocks we have running, that during this economically volatile period, are often times a craps shoot on blind hopes of earnings or other blind fundamentals that I have no way of knowing anything about, outside of some sort of insider informtion, that could whack them every bit as much as gas can if I’m in tech. Take NVidia for example. Down almost 9% (today Monday August 8th).. Great stock. solid cashflow etc. market leader, best in class. Nonetheless, they guide lower on a few important sectors,( thT 8 have no wa6 of knowing anything about until After the news has broken and the stock has gone into free fall. And it drags down others with it. Again take. lookat Palantir, another great comany, ( way undervalued in my ignorant opinion), nonetheless, down almost 14% ( again on Monday August8th.). in most other sectors, its still a bit of a. rap shot from day to day. Most everything else isn’t quite sure yet where to go. And fixed income assets are simply not pulling anywhere near their weight.
Make no mistake about it, I’ve been down 12-18% in a single day from time to time,(full disclosure ….today Im down 10% ) but the fundamentals that those swings are occuring on are in the bigger picture of things,( which remeber isnt the next 60-90 days…… its the next 140 - 200 days …….. thats where the rubber meets the road and we find out whos calling balls and strikes. These other little news flashes about a nicer week of weather here in the US amonst our inferno of a burning planet are comparatively insignificant in their impact on the overall fundamental market direction over the longer term, and sadly, when those sppokified bearish blurbs docomes out,….. it’s almost invariably the small to medium size retail traders that are panicking to get out of the market as is indicated within market balance per size sector . Its almost as if theyve forgotten why they got in in the firt place. Did theyreally have some knowledge that they were going to be ble to jump in and jumpout with little tono volatility exposure? Or when that news came out, do they hve some insight that the market i destined to abandon the longer fundamental story whicj hasnt changed one ayota since June? but now thy figure if its down 6% today.,…. its gottab goin down 16% to tomorrow and on and on etc. This is emotional trading, and this market will eat emotional traders for a snack.
The large and especially the extra large institutions are rarely the panic stricken in these one off moves. that could happen once , maybe even twice in a week. And as cliche as it sounds, these are dips that unless the fundamentals have significant foreword looking outlook changes, are often times that present as excellent buying opportunities, as this ETF often times will reclaim all or more of that territory in a single session, or just a few, unless it’s in a bit of a bear cycle in which case it takes its time a little more subtly, which is fine by me, as when there is any positive guidance that comes out, its not ridiculously overbought and usually has plenty of room and investment interest to rip higher and roar upward …But since it low in June, even with all its volatility, it never ceases to amaze me,…. this market and the people who are playing in this sandbox are pretty transparent as to where they believe this thing is ultimately going over the next few months into the winter. You can see who’s who after a while and how they trade watching level two. Theres a guy I call Mr 6100……be ause for whatever reason, hes always arbitraging lo5s of 6100 shares on bothsides of the market, all the time and his spreads change constantly with the days volatility. Hes always in it. and i enever seen him simply on one side. of the market. …ive seen him weighted heavier tothe buy side, but never to the sell side. Thenthere are other “” marked players as I like to call them. watch them long enough and you get a feel as to whos doing what and “ in general” what theyve got on their mind as far as their generalin lination toward market direction. Make no mistake about it, theytrade fast and furious and can change their minds about direction and velocity just a sue as anyon else can. But the one Ive noticed….. They play to stay, and rarely disappear from the market because the markeet took a beat down. They are still there, doing their do. waiting for the same ting any other long termer is waiting for as well, the onset of the Freeport LNG terminal coming back on line gushing gas back toEurope, along with the onset of crisp frost morning reminding everyone that the arctic northern cold wont stayaway for much longer as the cooling temperatures require people to start turning up the thermostats
To be sure…….I don’t take anything for granted, and Iknow better than to claim I know exactly what any market is going to do. But of all the trading I have done over my life time, I have never seen such a one side,, ….. lopsided trading opportunity based on fundamental information that is going to be extremely difficult to dislodge or displace between now and the beginning of the year. Ifeel a bit like Michael Burry did when he dug into all the data on the derivative loan packages that as far as he ws concerned showed only one thing.….. a market about to go ballistic one way. The data was clear as the day is long. But the market didnt seem to think so, or think it was very important until way after hed staked his position based on his beliefs…..And he got his ass handed to him day after day for months, to the point where everyone thought he was insane, he was being fired, sued for gross negligence. etc etc…… But none of those things changed the data……And when the data’s relevancy to marketplace was finally allowed to show itself to the world, as you cant hide from reality forever……well, we all know what happened. no two markets are the same, nor are the stars that guide them……..
But, when those rare opportunities present themselves, and you have empirical evidence in your data, sometimes you’ve just gotta roll the hard six. But like you’ve appropriately noted, there are no ways to guarantee any kind of outcome in any stock let alone one with as volatile a nature as this one. But…..quite simply… I like my odds…. alot.
So I pay attention to it all. ….. Macro, Micro, technicals, opinion ( of qualified players, agencies and governments ). And I leave Nothing unchecked for more than a short while, ducking out after outsized moves, and working myself back in, often times at a far better position,… and sometimes at a worse position, But, make no mistake about it,… waiting around praying for that perfect entry point in this beast,….. is a pipe dream. ……..You’ve gotta be in it to win it and you have to catch to wave.
For me that means quickly but carefully evaluating my best educated guess as to where I believe the technicals will allow the stock to pull back to. But there is little waiting, as it all happens far quicker than anything I’ve ever dealt with before. But being disciplined and staying true and honest in forming my technical trend lines has proven invaluable to me here more than any other security I’ve ever traded. As I’ve bought within pennys of various bottoms more often than I ever thought was even possible. That only came about as a result of ditching my fear and trading this thing as if it were an emotionless strategic game, knowing that there were going to be some big days on both sides of the ledger.
But trading from the vantage point of a peer rather than a deer has allowed me to keep from freaking out when it dumps for no reason, and to ring the register on outsized moves and prepare to pounce based on the belief in everything I’ve learned. My win to loss ratio in trading this EFT has gone from 43% to 68% ……I can’t speak to anybody else’s objectives etc. , but most casinos would kill to have those odds.
Again, I don’t claim to be anything more than anyone else. I’ve just committed myself to incessantly educating myself as to why this thing does what it does and to what degree based on various types of fundamental changes within the market. Though I’ve put an awful lot into it, im just as happy to call it luck. All I know is that the more I educate myself, the luckier I get…..go figure🥸
I just hope other people can find it within themselves to maybe put a little something into this potential opportunity and see if they don’t discover some new things about their own trading that they never really knew lay dormant within them if they love trading the way I do. If I were listening to me right now, Id realize that just since the time I fist published thisarticle last week, this thing is down almost 14.5%. I dont know othe rpeople look at these things, but when I see something I reuly believe in that has given me No substantive reason to change that belief, and I see it drop like this, or Nvidia, or Palantir……. I buy more,….. usually alot more,….. and I did just that on all three and a few others. ( for your records….this is Monday August 8, 2022
It’s definitely NOT for everybody, but boy, what a rush….. and even if this thing goes back down to its June low again, I will be up almost 20%….. not bad for the risk to reward ratio. In any and every case, each individual should do their own research and homework, and take risks commensurate with their own unique investment goals. I am definitely NOT an advisor of any kind and no such opinions that I share should be construed as anything other than my own opinion based on my own portfolio’s risk tolerance and structure.
Best of luck to all😃
Please keep the comments coming in. I really like hearing the viewpoints of others regardless of where they stand🤓And I reallyhope to se some of you on the other side of rise at or beyond year end, so we all have something to laugh (or hopefully not to cry about),….but by God either way itll sure as hell be worthy of a drink🍻
Cheers
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Tyliving 76 : Great insight definitely appreciate how you broke it down .
PhotoSynth OP Tyliving 76 : Thanks…. I know it’s only a point of view.But I have yet to feel so strongly about. Any other trade I’ve ever had a a chance to make. On todays blurb on a nicer week here in the U.S. which allowed it to f drift 10% lower today., I ( personally) saw this as a huge opportunity to back up the truck.
Europes prices at the same time…….they’re continuing to spool higher. Remember this trade for me is not for the nest week or 30 or 60 days. The time capsule gets opened for reevaluation January 4th 2023. Unless major fundamentals come into play to change the absolute narrative between now and then, what happens with a few nice days of whether here and there and other distractions are just that…….distractions