FOMC July Minutes Is Coming Today. It May Reveal Fed's Next Move

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting, set to be published at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, will most likely offer clues on whether the central bank would go big with tightening yet again in September.

Fed officials' decision at their July gathering to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for a second straight month marked the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s. And since then, betting in financial markets on the size of the next move in September has swung between 50 and 75 basis points on reports showing a surprisingly strong labor market and slowing inflation.

Fed officials who have spoken since the July meeting have pushed back against any market perception that they would be pivoting away from monetary tightening any time soon. They have made it clear that cooling the hottest inflation in several decades would be their top priority.

August numbers on jobs and consumer prices are due out before the September meeting, and will probably be critical in shaping market expectations ahead of that decision. Currently, investors are betting the central bank will start reversing course with rate cuts by mid-2023.