Ishare Russia Value
According to the last done price trade in mosco exchange on 23/08/2022, the ETF value is 31.92/Unit (If black rock success to sold out with current price)
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Big Stonk Lord : Bro sorry to drop the truth but your way of calculation is not accurate at all. You did not yet take into account the following:
1) Capital controls - once ruble outflow is unbanned, the Russians will be the first to dump to take profit. Ruble forex exchanges are very very restricted in Russia and people often have to buy USD in the black market. The black market ruble exchange rate is about 1 USD to 70-80 rubles with wide spreads.
2) Abritrage from the ADRs and GDRs. The dump I’m value from those are not simply going away with cancellation.
3) Blackrock’s website shows the most accurate estimates based on all these factors. It is in fact accurate.
4) Blackrock’s customer service is not the most reliable in providing answers. The MSCI 25/50 Russia index terminated on 1 June, but Blackrock still claimed they were following the index when I emailed them in July.
It would be safe for you to assume the value on the website is correct. Anything more you get is a bonus.
102214538 OP Big Stonk Lord : Hi bro, Its fine for discussion. Actually, I understand the there is capital control, and also the risk for invest in russia when they start a war. I actually just bought 200 unit at USD 8.xx only. Just a small gamble.
I saw the most of the holding list is securities listed on mosco exchabge instead of adr and gdr. I was thinking once the ruble outflow is unbanned, even the Rube/USD drop to 120/USD and all the share price listed in mosco exchange drop another 50% from current price, the value of ETF unit will be USD31x0.5x0.5 =USD7.5
Big Stonk Lord : Ah yeah, I got a friend who buy also but forgot to dump when the war started that’s why I keep checking for him. I also checked the ruble and stocks trading volume at the MOEX website and it’s about 1/4 of the pre war volume.
At this rate though, it doesn’t look like they will open to foreigners for a long time. ERUS is the largest Russia ETF to close by far along with the Invesco ones, so it’s a confirmed dump once their market opens. Also have to take note of the fact that the lion’s share of volume on the MOEX is actually from US and Europe so it will be tremendous and trigger margin calls all over if they open to foreigner selling.
The only wildcard here right now is if Putin gets removed before 31 December 2023, then we will see.