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Monthly Journal: Traders' Insights Wanted!
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Has the commodities rally ended?

$Rex Intl (5WH.SG)$ $RH PetroGas (T13.SG)$ $Crude Oil Futures(FEB5) (CLmain.US)$
Commodity prices have come off substantially since peaking in the start of the year. Many people said that the commodities rally has probably ended. So have the rally ended? There are a few reasons why I don't think so. Below are some reasons why I think energy prices may continue to rally in late 2022 or early 2023.
1) OPEC+
OPEC+ has sent indication that they are prepared to cut production if oil prices fall too low.
2) Under- investment in energy infrastructure
There has been under- investment due to focus on renewable energy in the past decade or so. This has resulted in tight supplies. New capacity can't come onstream anytime soon.
3) Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
The Biden administration authorized the release of 180 m barrels of crude from the SPR. This will end this Nov. The U.S. need to replenish their inventory after that which will send oil prices higher.
4) EU's ban on Russian crude
In June, the European Council adopted the bloc's sixth package of sanctions, banning the purchase, import, or transfer of crude oil and certain petroleum products from Russia to the EU. The ban on seaborne crude oil goes into effect on Dec 5th, while the ban on other petroleum products goes into effect in Feb 2023. Approximately 90% of Russian crude exports to Europe are seaborne. Energy prices may rise after that.
5) Climate change
The world is experiencing extreme weather due to climate change. Many countries around the world are facing record high temperatures and wildfires in summer. During winter, there may be record low temperatures and increased demand for heating.
6) Easing of lockdowns in China and global recovery from Covid-19 pandemic
As the world's largest fuel importer recovers from the pandemic, lockdowns will be eased or lifted and fuel demand will increase. Similarly, the world will experience greater demand for travel and fuels.
7) First global energy crisis
The world has experienced oil shocks before. But this is the first time where crude oil, natural gas and coal prices are all at very high levels at the same time. This is the perfect time for oil prices to set new records.
The following are articles that support the rally of energy and commodities prices in late 2022 or early 2023.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Analyst-Oil-To-Hit-120-Again-By-Winter.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Wall-Street-Sees-Another-Big-Commodities-Rally-In-2022.html
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/limited-oil-and-gas-capacity-could-send-prices-higher-in-2023-analyst-201407560.html
https://www.law.com/dailybusinessreview/2022/07/12/worst-of-global-energy-crisis-may-still-be-ahead-iea-says/?slreturn=20220724013828

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