My argument for incumbents is they already have a large user...

My argument for incumbents is they already have a large userbase that's familiar with them, and they have an existing source of free cashflow unlike the pure-EV plays which means they're less risky, considering how bloated the pure-plays are because they're valued like "it's gonna be the next Tesla!"
Reminder, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ IPOed at only $1B.
Meanwhile, $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ / $Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ were at one point $100B companies despite having nothing to back it up.
Consider the following:
Ford has a fcf of +$9.6B and a cap of $60B.
Lucid has a fcf of -$2.4B and a cap of $27B (they seem to have difficulty living up to their promises as well).
Rivian has fcf of -$5B and a cap of $27B although $15B of that is cash.
My problem is, why would I invest in Lucid or Rivian when I know Ford not only has much better fcf and userbase, but isn't trading at ridiculous multiples like the other 2. It's all risk and very little reward.
What's more likely, $Ford Motor (F.US)$ doubling in value, or Rivian/Lucid catching up to Ford's capacity without going bankrupt?