The U.S. dollar is on track to rise for its four consecutive month after hitting a 20-year high on Monday as investors braced forthe aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in a bid to tamp down the soaring inflation.
The U.S. Dollar Index is used to measure the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies, including the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona.
[Why is the U.S. dollar smiling?]
For the time being, the dollar will keep “smiling”, as indicated by the “dollar smile theory” that no matter whether the US economy outperforms or underperforms its peers, the USD tends to strengthen.
Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war have inflicted rising volatility in global capital markets as well as strong demand for haven assets.
The Dollar Smile Theory
Stephen Jen, a former economist at Morgan Stanley, came up with The Dollar Smile Theory
[How does it affect your investment?]
It should be worth noting, however, the U.S. dollar has both boons and banes.
An obvious case is thata strong dollar saves the cost of Americans traveling overseas but puts foreign tourists visiting the U.S. at a disadvantage. A Singapore resident who intends to exchange $10,000 at the beginning of the year, for example, would have paid aboutS$13,500,but now it would cost aboutS$13,900.
Moreover, as the dollar continues to rise,some dollar-denominated cash management fundsmay increase potential gains.
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