Cow Moo-ney commented on a stock · Sep 5, 2022 06:43

September market outlook

Hey guys, there’s no new video this week as I was busy. Some quick thoughts for the week.

The market continued its sell-off last week. Whether it continues this week or not, I think it will largely depend on Powell’s speech on Thurs. Yes, he’s speaking again, and yes, he’s always the wild card that can move the market drastically in either direction.

My view on Powell’s speech: Powell is speaking 20 mins before the market opens on Thurs. Remember how he single handedly tanked the market with his 8-min speech? And by having his speech before the market opens, I think he’s going to say something that will move the market drastically, and that day could be very volatile.

Anyway, I personally will not try to guess how will the market react to his speech. As usual, I let the market makers go first, then I follow. Case in point, when the market tanked after the last Powell’s speech, I made use of the weak market to sell Put contracts. Similarly, when the market was rallying previously, I sold Call contracts.

Therefore, whether the market goes up or down, it doesn’t concern me that much as I trade with the trend. Hope this answers some of the questions where fellow investors asked me whether the market or a particular stock will be greeen or red. I repeat, I (try) not to predict exact movements for a particular day or week That is too precise in my opinion. I prefer to follow the big players’ (institutions) movement. Let them go first.

With this, let’s check out some of the key support and resistance levels I’m looking out for. Disclaimer: Everything is my personal view, and shall not be construed as financial advice alright:

TSLA - when Tesla was at 900 ish (pre split) aka 300 post split, I have mentioned that we could head towards 250s to 260s with a gap around that around - simply because the market is still very weak. And we are halfway there, hitting 260s last week.

It’s currently sitting at 50 moving average which acts as a support ($270). If this breaks, then we could really see 250s in near future. But if it holds, or Powell gives us some good news, watch out for resistance at 285 and 297. Anything below these 2 levels, my view remains bearish

Apple - apple is also sitting on a support level - 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 155.5. For downside, look out for 149. If that doesn’t hold, we could slide to sub 140s. On the upside, lookout for 160 and 161 - there 2 levels were support initially, but has turned into resistance levels. Apple needs to go above these 2 levels to flyyy, to about 170. To highlight, Apple closed with a bearish engulfing candle last Friday

Google - following the zig zag pattern that I mentioned in 3 of my latest videos. You can watch them if you haven’t :) I followed the trend and traded option for this stock (all in my video)

Microsoft - resistance at 270. On the downside, I don’t see much support below. Let’s see what Powell has for us. Another bad surprise will see us hitting 240s range. Otherwise, upside is as shared, needs to break above 270 to be slightly bullish. Slightly only.

Nvidia - when Nvidia was at 170s, have shared that we have a probability to hit 150s and 140s. And here we are, at 130s. Check out the chart below - i have drawn the bottom dotted line few months ago, and that range is 120s. Many months ago, it looked impossible. But currently, it seems like it is possible now. And what’s scary is that, purely based on valuation perspective, this stock could potentially break below 100. Not saying it will, but if Wall Street wants to purely look at its valuation only; the so called “fair valuation” is below 100, unless Nvidia can buck up, and bring back their growth. I could be wrong - only time will tell :)

SPY - 389 needs to hold, otherwise the next meaningful supoort is low 370s

Finally, if you’re interested / curious about my potential entry points, you can still check out my last video below. If my post and videos had added some value to your research, pls help to like and subscribe! It will keep me going!

Hawkish Fed – Sentiment Rally Gone with the Wind (Stock Market)