Interest Rate Expectations

"According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points by September is 10 per cent, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 90 per cent, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points by November is 8.7 per cent, the probability of raising interest rates by 100bp is 80 per cent, and the probability of raising interest rates by 125bp is 11.3 per cent."

This is a news headline that is basically telling us the market is expecting a large increase in intrest rates at the next FED meeting. Basically the market has already priced in a large interest rate hike theoretically. So any smaller hike in interest rates might possibly be bullish for equities. And a largert hike might scare investors off. This is the current rationally in the current market environment.

But dont forget about the Economic Data releasing this week that will give us an idea about how high inflation risen. This might possibly change the markets expectations on the rate that the FED will increase interest rates. So you might see a market repricing that could take place after the inflation data is released this week.

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US)$ $VIX Index Futures(AUG4)(VXmain.US)$ $Gold Futures(AUG4)(GCmain.US)$ $Powershares Exchange Traded Fd Tst Db Us Dollar Index Bullish Fund Etf(UUP.US)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US)$ $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US)$ $Ishares Iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Etf(LQD.US)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ $Crude Oil Futures(AUG4)(CLmain.US)$ $Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH)$ $SSE Composite Index(000001.SH)$ $S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU)$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust(DIA.US)$ $TENCENT(00700.HK)$ $SSE Composite Index(000001.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH)$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG)$ $NIO-SW(09866.HK)$ $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG)$ $NIO Inc(NIO.US)$ $BILIBILI-W(09626.HK)$ $Bilibili(BILI.US)$ $Baidu(BIDU.US)$ $BIDU-SW(09888.HK)$ $XPeng(XPEV.US)$ $Li Auto(LI.US)$ $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)$ $BYD Company Limited(002594.SZ)$