Experts from all walks of life are bearish on the market? Let me talk about my opinion on the current market...

Recently, a lot of news has begun to point out that the market trend is too strong (starting July 14, 2022, the US market has been strengthening for almost a month), so many “analysts” have jumped out and started shorting the market in a reasonable and evidential manner.

My personal investment style is bullish, but it's not a “dead long”. For example, clearing A-shares in May 2015, clearing stocks in all markets in February 2020, and shorting the market index backwards (with special trading software, you can short the index with leverage), this is one of my few short positions and shorting experiences.

So far, I have no idea or action to clear the inventory. The account's 2022 profit also reached 51.01% from the 32.05% last time announced, and is approaching the June high of 56.15%. I hope to get a better yield when the “annual report” is disclosed to everyone at the end of the year.

Below, I've found some of the main singing voices currently on the market, and listed them in the form of a summary for your reference:

September 2022 or a drastic rate hike
There was a big sell order in the market
The economy is not good
The inflation index is too high
War and international relations
These empty “experts” and “analysts” sell anxiety around these topics. In fact, if we read these articles carefully and think carefully, we can come to the conclusion that these topics are too big; it is difficult for us to effectively predict the probability or scope of influence of these times. The level of human fear of unknown events will be infinitely amplified, which is also the main cause of anxiety.

Let's look at it one by one. Whether interest rates will be raised in September, 99% of people won't know the exact situation. Big sales orders appear in the market every day. The market is the buyer and seller, so the appearance of oversized sales orders also means that these sales orders are eventually digested and absorbed by the market. Otherwise, the market that only sells and doesn't buy would have collapsed long ago, and it wouldn't be their turn to use these big sales orders as proof of going short. (I don't think it's reliable to analyze the future trend of the market simply through big sell orders and big buy orders, whether it's long-term or short-term, investment or speculation)

The idea that the economy is bad is even more exaggerated. It is true that the pandemic and trade war have affected us a lot, but regardless of whether the economy is good or bad, quite a few companies lay off employees or many small manufacturers go out of business every year. If every 5 or 10 years is divided into a cycle, then there is no problem that the economy is bad almost every cycle. Focusing on the employment rate and GDP data is a good reference method. Below I have found some statistics and icons for your reference:

As far as inflation is concerned, this is not something that can be easily controlled or predicted. Although the US market's inflation data for July declined, this does not mean that inflation has taken a turn. What investors can do is keep their money bags as safe as possible. In an inflationary market, even if you don't do anything, the currency will depreciate.

The final “war and international relations” is an even more esoteric subject, which many experts and scholars have not been able to predict. Judging from human history, “struggle” has existed continuously since the advent of humans, and it is also the hardest to predict. So no matter how the current situation develops, no one can give an accurate answer to the current situation.

Finally, we listed these data. I haven't been able to get a signal from this data that the economic gap is about to collapse; when you put together the anxiety faced by these markets, you'll find that in fact, none of us have a clear idea of what will happen to tomorrow's market, butDon't worry too much because it's no use being anxious.

So how do you do that? First, you need to review the account situation, have an in-depth understanding of the stocks or funds you hold, calculate their value, and don't be afraid that valuable “things” will fall below value for a short time. It's like we go to a restaurant every day. If we spend an average of 20 yuan and suddenly one day the restaurant celebrates, and the previous 20 yuan package becomes 10 yuan, then isn't the 20 yuan set meal you ate before worth it? Or are you glad you ate the $10 set today?

Everyone who reads the article will probably have their own answers. Exactly what kind of state of mind they will have after eating this 10 yuan package will also be different. But there is no need for any psychological fluctuations due to this short meal. We are all human. We all need to eat, and we all need to spend money on food.

It's like an investment market. Every day there is a new price. Some of these prices are high and some are low. If you are unlucky enough to hold high-value stocks, then when the market retracts, the psychological pressure may be much greater than that of those with reasonable or low value. If you're lucky enough to catch the “Dianqing” and get a great discount package, there's no need to brag about it, unless you never eat at this restaurant again.

In summary, I strongly recommend that you review your account's holdings or funds and evaluate them.

The rise and fall of the market is also a common phenomenon. We also discover from voices coming from all sides of the market that 50% of “experts” make accurate predictions every time, then talk loudly about their “successful” experiences or share their own journey. Everyone also blocks out these sounds as much as possible. Watching too much and listening too much will greatly affect their own thinking.

As for the US market, it is still the largest trading market in the world. The chance of a sudden collapse or sudden collapse is not high. Even if we assume that the market crashes and the stock market has caused a large-scale collapse, the physical industry market will definitely be another round of bloody storms. What's going to happen? If the market doesn't crash, the money invested will return sooner or later; if the market actually crashes, the value of money will not be as good as it is now. Well, whether it's value investment or speculation, choosing an effective investment in the market is a good choice.

First, there are new energy vehicles. In 2019 and 2020, I still felt that NEVs were a promising industry for the future, but as more NEV manufacturers appeared on the market, not only did they clear NEVs, but instead advised everyone not to touch NEV and NEV companies.

The exact reason is also quite simple. The market is like a piece of cake. When the first person comes to eat the cake, you'll find that the remaining portion of the cake is very large, but as people on the sidelines start to eat the cake in parts, apparently it becomes more difficult for the first person to eat the first piece and then eat the second piece.

Let's think of a cake as a number, like 100. The first person took a piece of cake, that is, 1 was taken from 100. The next time he went to get the cake, the remaining number was 99 because no one shared it with him. He took another piece of cake, and the number became 98. That is, every time he came, the cake decays at a rate of 1

However, then a second person enters the venue and starts dividing the cake. The rate of decay changed from 1 to 2. When the third round took the cake, the number became 96, and the decay rate changed to 2. After that, the third person, the fourth person, and the fifth person, more and more people came in to eat the cake, and the cake will decay faster and faster.

The first guy seemed to eat a lot, but since he had already eaten it, he had to go back to the cake every round to grab the rest of the share with others. The market is also often ruthless. Eating a portion of the cake may give you a portion, but the market isn't that friendly, and if you don't get it right, you can get your share of what you eat.

Let's take another look at the current new energy and new energy electric vehicle industry. Is it currently just in this kind of market that divides the cake? More and more manufacturers are entering the industry. The industry is clearly heated. There are so many car builders, who can effectively select the winners? When there was enough cake for everyone to eat on the spot, everyone probably coexisted in harmony, but when they went to pick up the cake in one round, they discovered that all the cakes in the venue had already been taken. I think everyone understood what would happen?

Another thing that is highly unrecommended to operate in 2022 is a technology company. Most technology companies are overvalued, so there will be sharp fluctuations due to market instability. This kind of fluctuation has a leverage-like effect during a bull market or market, but it also fluctuates greatly when the market falls.

It's like when an industry explodes, everyone is optimistic about its future, very optimistic, and willing to buy the company's stock several times, tens of times, or 100 times higher. When the market falls or panics, those stocks are also sold off. Almost most investors become very pessimistic, as if they were going to crash and go out of business tomorrow, so stock prices in the corresponding market also fluctuated sharply.

If you want to survive in the market and sleep well, the most important thing is to review your account, take good care of your money bag, and never turn your investment into speculation. Being friends with time is also about finding the right friend. The right friend can benefit you a lot; the wrong friend only consumes your life.

What many friends have seen in the investment market is where popularity has appeared, and where money has been made. When electric cars are popular, they go to electric cars, and when oil explodes, they go to petroleum. Coincidentally, I've come across both of these currently trending topics in the market.

It also made me think of a famous saying: One bird in one hand is better than two birds in the forest!