Weekly Buzz: Has the market bottomed? What do you think?

• HopeAlways : When a company's value in terms of its financial results, future outlook and risks is higher than its current valuation, we can buy. When a company's value is lower than the current valuation, we should sell.

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• Syuee : There is no absolutely certain way to determine the best buying and selling price, estimating the intrinsic value of a stock with considering the appropriate margin of safety can help.
  
  You just need to ask yourself, if the price that you are paying is worth the growth that you are expecting in the company ?
  
  So always buy a stock at a little lesser price than its intrinsic value !
  
  Now, selling price can be different for different people, depending if one is a long-term investor or a trader.
  
  If you are someone who has the patience to hold stocks or someone who gets afraid with a little correction in the market.
  
  If you are into trading then booking anything between 10% - 20% profit is good enough.
  
  A trader should have a stop loss of about 8% - 10%, or anything that you can bear.
  
  But if you are an investor then sell your stocks only if the fundamentals of the company go bad, or the reason that you bought it for is no longer there.
  
  Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the market's ride.
  
  The right price for a stock varies person to person, due to their individual intent of the purchase of that stock.
  
  So there is no one ideal entry price for all.
  
  Sure, it is to make profits, but how long are you planning to hold?
  
  What are your goals such as short term trading for monthly income or investing, or retirement ?
  
  When you understand these factors, and learn a little more about how to determine the right price for YOU, then, you will find that you will know what price is right, and your investing / trading will be far more profitable.
  
  #ValueIsMoreExpensiveThanPrice
  

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• HopeAlways Syuee : The key is to identify great companies at fair or better prices.

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• Syuee HopeAlways : Financial statements can be used to compute financial ratios that indicate the health or value of a company which investors / traders can utilise to decide whether to buy or sell.

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• 无名小卒42606 : It's impossible to reach the bottom, let's wait slowly for a while until the bottom

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• Luis Chaparro : Always with a good positive attitude.

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• 矜重的比尔 : As of September 14, 2022, western oil shares had risen from $27.88 to $67.2, a rise of 141%.
  
  Echoing this is Buffett's shareholding in Western oil. From 9% at the beginning of this year, it rose to 15.3% in May, to 16.3% in June, and further increased to 18.7% in July. Buffett already owns a 26.8% stake in western oil, including warrants, according to the latest 13murg document released in September.
  
  At the same time, Buffett also received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of Occidental Oil. Investors around the world are probably exploring why Buffett has repeatedly increased his holdings of Western oil.
  
  As an investor who bought preferred shares in Western oil in 2019, Buffett may have a good understanding of corporate management and a deep understanding of corporate culture. This is in line with his consistent investment philosophy.
  
  In addition, it may be that Western oil is undervalued, while Buffett likes undervalued assets.
  
  When western oil bought Anadarko for $38 billion in debt, Buffett received $10 billion preferred shares with an 8 per cent dividend and 84 million warrants that could buy more common shares at an exercise price of $59.62.
  
  Debt is trouble to you and me, but it may be of great value to Buffett. This debt accounts for most of the value of Western oil companies, so the leverage of oil prices is more obvious in Western oil. As oil prices rise, Western oil debts will be repaid more quickly, so the share of equity value will increase. This is certainly a good thing for Buffett.
  
  In addition, Western Oil also owns the largest oil company in the United States, and large inventories give production costs a competitive advantage, which is one of Buffett's favorite corporate traits.
  
  Therefore, it is not unreasonable for Buffett to like western oil. As for whether you want to follow the soup or not, it's up to you.

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• Ah keong : From the initial ignorance to the present, I have worked in A shares, gold, foreign exchange, US stocks and so on. Although I have little money and no money, I have accumulated some of my own opinions.
  
  The option was only learned after watching the "Big short" two months ago, two of which made tens of millions of dollars in the garage with $300. At that time, my heart was very hot. Immediately after searching for relevant information on Zhihu Inc. and * *, I felt that options were super * *. It is simply a good tool for small funds like me to dream of getting rich (like the first time I saw gold, 50 times leverage 50 US dollars to 2000 US dollars, and then excited), the story begins.
  
  The first option order, 40 hands to buy JD.com 317 maturity of 29 call, half a month profit of more than 60%, the second order Tesla, Inc. 10 days 120% … However, the sadness is always behind, bet on the financial statements of zto and jd, the maturity time is short, directly spit out the former profit and lose 20% of the principal, and then rely on siri and tesla to make a profit again.
  
  First: options are high-risk derivatives without insurance.
  What for? If the call on the expiration date is not sold or the right is not exercised, it will be null and void. Since it is naked holding, it is basically not going to exercise the power, and the exercise right after the heavy position does not have so much money at all, okay? Under the call option, the out-of-price exercise becomes meaningless and becomes a heavy position, which is too risky, and vice versa, so is the call of the put option.

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• 103047546 : 价值投资经过从格雷厄姆到巴菲特等杰出投资者的不断完善，形成了一整套方法论。这套体系主要是从定性和定量分析出发，将企业未来现金流折现后，对企业的当前价值进行估算，并兼顾考虑安全边际作出投资决策。在很长一段时期，传统价值投资将证券投资从零和博弈的错误轨道，带回到价格与价值互动关系角度的规律上来，对于证券市场具有重要的划时代意义。但是时代在不断发展，资本市场也在不断演化和前进，不管是美国这样的成熟市场，或是中国这样具有特殊国情又兼有资本市场普遍性规律的新兴市场，对于传统价值投资的一些思维方式都提出了新的挑战。
  
  首先是传统价值投资中所谓“低估”、“高估”的概念存在一个很大的误区。在投资实践中，投资者以为“高估”的公司，很可能是因为主观认知的不足低估了其景气程度；而很多人认为是“低估”的，往往是因为没有意识到其中某些风险的折价。在这个过程中我们团队也犯了很多错误，才逐渐意识到这一点。比如对于光伏逆变器行业的研究，我们曾经就对其景气程度估计不足。同时，对于低估股票的不确定性而言，意识到某种风险的存在并不意味着能准确量化其风险程度。因此，传统价值投资的“低估”和“高估”，在今天的二级权益市场，很多时候只是一种阶段性的认知不足。
  
  在逐渐迭代投研思想的过程中，我们团队内部越来越反对“高估”和“低估”的说法，我们认为以“高估”、“低估”这种心态去参与二级市场投资，本质上也容易变成一种投机，实际是与市场进行博弈。这种博弈随着市场的进化，必然越来越困难。在“高估”与“低估”的投资逻辑指导下，很多人只是在市场的分歧上抛硬币而已，即便事后证明了对与错也没有多大的意义。另外，这种投资逻辑还容易导致一个问题：在投资决策时失去对市场的敬畏之心。因为以高估低估的心态开展投资活动，必然是试图以强者姿态去战胜市场的心理。而如果不是对于相关领域有长期的经验和出类拔萃的认知，这种心态往往不是一种智慧的选择。
  
  第二点，安全边际这个概念其实已经越来越变成一个伪命题。安全边际的逻辑在传统价值投资的早期是很有效的一种分析思路，但是在信息化时代的今天，安全边际已经越来越成为一个主观化和僵化的思维模式。在今天的投资实践中，如果投资者主观上认为安全边际非常大，信心满满重仓买入，可能只是陷入了与“低估”思维类似的认知盲区而已。这种认知盲区可能是对于相关不确定性和风险的认识不够深刻，即使有时候误打误撞做对了，但是不可能每次都对，因此以安全边际为主要投资逻辑的投资者经常承担了自己认知之外的风险而不自知。另外一种常见安全边际的问题是——企业的发展不是孤立的，所谓的安全边际在地缘政治、宏观流动性变化等重大环境变化时非常脆弱。因为在重大的政治、经济环境变化中，企业内在价值的前景也实实在在的产生了不确定性，这种不确定性不可能不影响资本市场的预期和定价。强行用所谓恐惧与贪婪的陈词滥调试图战胜这种分歧并不是一种好的解决办法。因为未知就是未知，未知不可能没有恐惧。这时候需要投资者对宏观层面或事件类的不确定性必须作出判断和决策，而当投资者的投资结果是由宏观层面的政治、经济事件所决定时，最初分析时稳态假设下的安全边际往往已经不再重要甚至微不足道了。
  
  传统价值投资的另一个常见问题是所谓的“与优秀的公司一起成长”。如果不经过缜密扎实的定量分析，主要寄希望于时间去消化优秀公司阶段性的高估值，过去也许行得通，但是今后只会越来越困难。当信息的流动、整合，以及市场参与者的水平越来越高，二级市场进化越来越快，市场的定价效率越来越高，一般以较低的价格甚至所谓合理价格买入优秀公司的机会将变得越来越少。另外，我们应当清晰意识到优秀公司往往是时代特定发展阶段的产物。很多曾经证明过自己的优秀公司在新的行业变革中逐渐走向了平庸甚至破灭。“优秀”、“护城河”、“核心竞争力”这些概念不是一成不变的，大部分企业是处于激烈的市场竞争和行业变革中的。比如某家电龙头企业，其掌舵者过去是优秀的，但是今天的很多思想和举动明显已经没有先进性了。没有破茧重生的举措，企业很难再回到以前的竞争力。因此，如果不能结合时代发展背景、行业变化以及管理层的应对措施等因素，动态、审慎的研究分析标的公司在各个阶段的经营战略与战术，优秀明星公司的抱团和泡沫反而可能是一种投资陷阱，陪伴优秀公司一起成长实际上也暗含陪伴曾经优秀的公司一起走向平庸的风险。
  
  我们处在一个信息化时代，在正常的投资活动中，投资者可以轻易通过大量的公开信息研究上市公司，二级市场的流动性一般也远高于一级市场以及其他投资活动。受到广泛关注的高流动性的二级投资，必然要面临激烈的竞争。从这一点上来看，对于投资二级市场有较高甚至不切实际期望的投资者是非常危险的。投资者尤其是基金经理不应当假设价值投资似乎是某种必胜的武器，对于权益市场投资的复杂性和艰巨性应当充分揭示给资管类产品的投资者。

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• 阿姚朋友 : Looking back at history, young people are trapped for the first time
  
  At that time, because many of the products at home were XIAOMI's, mobile phones, routers, notebooks, hair dryers, kettle and so on; although I am not a stupid millet noodle, but also half a rice noodle bar
  
  
  
  Because XIAOMI opened a stock account for the first time, invested money, and got in touch with stocks; when he hit XIAOMI for the first time, I remember my stock cost was 16.6? I still remember that when XIAOMI Gao Guang was in his twenties, he was very happy at that time; he increased his positions several times in a row; as we all know, XIAOMI first broke, and at that time he believed in XIAOMI very much and doubted his life when he fell. He added two or three positions in a row. Later, thanks to 15 yuan, I couldn't stand it and sold it again. Later, I felt that XIAOMI seemed to have an upward trend and bought it back several times in succession. Then, as we all know, it fell to more than 9 yuan, MMP in my heart, and then sold it again. After that, XIAOMI went up for a while, and then fell into dog shit, that is, repeated harvests. Finally, I was so angry that I swore that I would never touch the stock again and then buy a new Huawei phone.
  
  
  
  Then one day, I looked at the simulation, I went, the simulation made money. Why? What happened? Something is wrong. I found that I traded too frequently before, looked at the dynamics of stocks too often, and my mentality was very explosive; moreover, I did not carry out company analysis or financial report analysis; later I made up for the study; I came into contact with value investment, learning fundamental analysis, financial reporting study, behavioral economics study, and learned the evil side of human nature.

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