Oil Futures
Oil Futures have been rallying so far this week off of very bullish news. There were rumors monday that OPEC+ was going to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day. This is a major tightening of supply. And simple supply and demand will tell you the when the supply is decreased and all other factors remain the same then oils price will go up theoretically. So is oil going to rally again? It looks like there are signs of the downtrend slowing. Check out the short video to get the technical outlook for oil futures. Click the link directly below.
If oil does get some green weeks ahead then there are some good tickers to look out for. $Chevron (CVX.US)$ $ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$ $Phillips 66 (PSX.US)$ $Valero Energy (VLO.US)$ $Marathon Oil(Delisted) (MRO.US)$ $Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US)$ $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ $Imperial Petroleum (IMPP.US)$ $Houston American Energy (HUSA.US)$ $US Well Services (USWS.US)$
In the chart directly below you can see the long term downtrend in oil. This was instigated by the decreasing outlook for future global economic growth. The downtrend is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's Quantative tightening wich is campthening economic growth with restrictive interest rates. Economic growth and just about everything else in this worls requires some sort of oil or oil byproducts. So no growth then no oil rally. Currently oil is showing signs of short-term bullishness off of OPEC news. So there may be some bullishness in the future possibly.
You can see in the chart below how oil futures's price has crossed above the resistance level of the current downtrend. This is a short-term bullish development. I have mapped out the nearest support and resistance levels to watch for some possible short-term price moves that could develope into a good short-term play. If the price just rips through this resistance level quickly with volume then that will look very bullish and this downtrend could possibly be over temporarily.
Just remember that the slowing global growth situation is what is keeping oil down. the only thing OPEC+ or any other entity can do to keep oil prices high is by manipulating supply. So watch for any news or economic data pertaining to supply or economic growth. I should mention that global forecasts for oil prices have been reduced recently almost at the same time as Crude Oil's price dipped below a long-term fibonacci level.
On an interesting note one OPEC+ official mentioned that they intend to make the supply of oil correlate with the demand of oil. So could this oil output reduction be a signal from OPEC? Maybe they see demand for oil falling in the future. Just a thought.
So will oil catch another small rally for the near future?
$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $VIX Index Futures(DEC4) (VXmain.US)$ $Gold Futures(FEB5) (GCmain.US)$ $Powershares Exchange Traded Fd Tst Db Us Dollar Index Bullish Fund Etf (UUP.US)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ $iShares Silver Trust (SLV.US)$ $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf (HYG.US)$ $Ishares Iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Etf (LQD.US)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $Crude Oil Futures(JAN5) (CLmain.US)$
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$ $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ $NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$ $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ $Baidu (BIDU.US)$ $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ $Li Auto (LI.US)$ $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ $BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ)$ $S&P/ASX 200 (.XJO.AU)$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$ $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ $NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$ $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ $Bilibili (BILI.US)$ $Baidu (BIDU.US)$ $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ $Li Auto (LI.US)$ $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ $BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ)$ $S&P/ASX 200 (.XJO.AU)$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$
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456632345 : It's hard to guess. Maybe the cut in production was to disguise weak demand?
SpyderCall OP 456632345 : I think that was what that one OPEC official was trying to say. because he also said that the production cuts are to cater to the market and not to threaten it.
SpyderCall OP : Institutional analysis: the next resistance of WTI crude oil is at the $90 / barrel mark.
The latest data from CME showed that open contracts and trading volume increased as WTI crude oil futures prices rose on Wednesday, opening the door to a continuation of the recent rally. Traders increased their open positions by about 13300 positions on Wednesday, the second consecutive day of growth. At the same time, trading volume increased for the third day in a row, an increase of about 45200 contracts. The next resistance for WTI crude oil futures is at the $90 / barrel mark.
SpyderCall OP SpyderCall OP : This is a less obvious resistance to me. But we gotta pay attention to what some of the analyst are saying. Especially those from the CME
razo2 : maybe is it good to take a look at SPR as well. I don't think US will like an idea of short oil reserves during the breakout war between Russia and Ukraine.
SpyderCall OP razo2 : refilling the SPR will be no easy task
Giovanni Ayala : Net (of)
eldemoniodejaime : I like this answer. You didn’t pretend to know. All I know is that it’s not the things you don’t know that get you killed, it’s the things you know for sure that just ain’t so
WallStreetYoda : there saying somthing about being worryed russia is trying to sell a bunch at higher prices so there not going to wanna let it rise on half time podcast yesterday… i was at work dealing with customers so i was only half listening with one earbud… but i know what i heard!! so don’t question it i pity the fool i will leave u now with this guy here with a bald head
Giovanni Ayala WallStreetYoda : It's the OPEC PRICES THERE WORRIED ABOUT
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