Tesla Q3 Preview: Profitability is Expected to Recover
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ to report third quarter 2022 earnings on October 19, Bloomberg's consensus estimate for Tesla's third quarter is for revenue of $22.3 billion, up 62% YoY, and adjusted net income of $3.7 billion, up 75% YoY.
Q3 production and delivery data analysis:
Tesla released its 3Q22 production and delivery data on October 3.
(1) Sales: The company delivered 344,000 electric vehicles in 3Q22 (+42% YoY, +35% YoY), below market expectations of 363,000 units, including 325,000 Model3/Y deliveries (+40% YoY, +36% YoY) and 19,000 ModelS/X deliveries (+101% YoY, +16% YoY).
(2) Production: The company produced 366,000 electric vehicles in 3Q22 (+54% YoY, +42% YoY), of which 346,000 Model3/Y were produced (+51% YoY, +43% YoY) and 20,000 ModelS/X were delivered (+123% YoY, +21% YoY).
(3) Review: production and sales data, less than market expectations, but from the further expansion of Tesla's production scale, as well as the economic environment weak premise is still strong order demand, Tesla production and sales data mainly by capacity constraints and logistics drag, rather than demand.
Preliminary forecasts for financial results from production and delivery data released on 10.3:
(1) Tesla is still able to achieve rapid growth
Tesla's deliveries grew negatively in the second quarter due to the Shanghai shutdown. With the resumption of the Shanghai mega-factory and the addition of Tesla's production lines in Austin, Texas and Germany, Tesla's production and deliveries are expected to continue to grow in the coming years.
(2) Bullish on Tesla's margin recovery in the third quarter
Although Tesla's margins declined from 32.9% in 1Q2022 to 27.9% in 2Q2022, they are expected to recover in 3Q due to the resumption of production at the Shanghai mega-factory and investments in new plants in Germany and Texas to increase production, driven by better economies of scale and higher average selling prices.
(3) Earnings Forecast.
Tesla's production, sales and earnings forecasts made by Deutsche Bank on 9.30:
Considering that the actual production and sales figures announced on 10.3 were lower than its expectation, the revenue figures should be adjusted downward.
Key risks:
Supply chain challenges during the epidemic
Capacity of additional production lines in Germany may be impacted by the recent international situation and the European energy crisis
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
