OPEC+ Cuts Could Lead To Supply Deficit In Oil Markets

Last week, OPEC+ said it would reduce its oil production target by 2 million barrels daily, with actual cuts of between 1 and 1.1 million bpd. The announcement pushed prices higher. By the end of the week, the resulting oil price rally had run out of steam, and prices were once again sliding on recession fears. And these fears might mask how the oil market tips into a shortage.

When the cartel said it would be cutting production, OPEC officials explained the reasons for the decision had to do with anticipating a drop in demand and saving spare production capacity for the eventuality of a sudden output outage such as one in Russia following the EU embargo entering into effect at the end of the year, for example.

The U.S. signaled it saw the move as a political one, amounting to a snub by Riyadh, which will be one of three OPEC members actually reducing production, and a declaration of siding with Russia.

The latter Riyadh already did six years ago when OPEC+ was born, so it shouldn’t have come as a surprise, but the snub appears to have come as a shock to Washington, prompting President Biden to threaten “consequences” of a yet unidentified nature.

While the White House ponders its options, some analysts have noted that the move of OPEC+ would tighten an already tight oil market. Recession worry seems to be reigning in oil markets right now, but the risk of an oil shortage is there, and none other than OPEC has been warning about it, most vocally Saudi Arabia in the face of its energy minister.

Meanwhile, there is more bad news: global oil inventories are in a decline that would be difficult to reverse. This is what Reuters’ John Kemp noted in a column this week, saying U.S. inventories have shed 480 million barrels in the past two years, to reach the lowest level for this time of the year since 2004.