Inflationary Data

The narratives in the markets right now are sky high and rising inflation, European recession, and de-globalization. All of the negative geopolitical tensions around the world are the supposed cause for this. Essentially only cause for actual real inflation is the expansion of the money supply. Mainstream media will not say it but all of the "money printing" during the pandemic is the main cause of the current inflation. The inflation situation as well as a very strong US dollar is exacerbating the recession situation in Europe ad well as other parts of the world like Sri Lanka. All of this is killing equity markets as the Federal Reserve is fighting inflation by raising interest rates at a rapid pace, which strengthens the dollar even more, and increases the cost of borrowing capital. This is bad for corporate profits world wide.
So when will the madness end? Nobody knows for sure. But you can follow inflationary data to see when the slowdown is happening. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of inflation based off of the consumers perception. This makes it a lagging indicator as consumers are the last in line to feel inflation.
Directly below you can see Month-over-Month CPI reading. Inflation is still rising and not slowing down. You want to see a CPI reading below 0 to see that inflation is slowing. The Fed has mentioned several times that they will keep raising interest rates until inflation is showing an obvious slowdown.

The most important commodity to follow is oil. Oil or oil byproducts are used in one way shape or form in just about every good or service. The production and transportation of goods and the facilitation of services all require oil. So we need the price of oil to come down in a big way to see it affect inflation positively.