Wall Street Today | Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year

The U.S. is forecast to enter a recession in the coming 12 months as the Federal Reserve battles to bring down persistently high inflation, the economy contracts and employers cut jobs in response, according to The Wall Street Journal's latest survey of economists.

On average, economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 63%, up from 49% in July's survey. It is the first time the survey pegged the probability above 50% since July 2020, in the wake of the last short but sharp recession.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard left open the possibility that the central bank would raise interest rates by 75 basis points at each of its next two meetings in November and December, while saying it was too soon to make that call.

"Whether the committee would want to pull some proposed or thought-of policy-rate increases from 2023 into the December meeting, I think that’s a judgment that is premature to make," he said Saturday in Washington during an event on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank.

Americans spent more on increasingly expensive essentials such as food and less on items with falling prices like gasoline and furniture. Overall U.S. retail sales—which comprise consumer spending mostly on goods such as furniture, vehicles and groceries but also at restaurants—were unchanged last month from August, after a revised 0.4% gain in August from July, the Commerce Department said Friday.

The European Union's executive arm plans to propose a mechanism to curb price volatility on the bloc's biggest gas marketplace and prevent extreme price spikes in derivatives trading to rein in the region's energy crisis.

The temporary mechanism designed by the European Commission would impose a dynamic price limit for transactions on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, whose main index is the benchmark for all gas traded on the continent. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this month that the TTF no longer reflects the bloc's energy reality after Russia cut supplies to Europe and the share of gas from Moscow dropped from 40% to around 7%.

The National Football League season is heading into Week 6, and it's still unclear which company will become the new owner of Sunday Ticket rights — the only remaining exclusive broadcast package that hasn't been renewed until 2030.