3 points to pay attention to in the aftermath - is it necessary to keep a close eye on external factors as US stocks depreciate and the development of sales dominance?

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 17th.
・Is it necessary to keep a close eye on external factors due to a sharp decline in the Nikkei Average and the development of sales dominance due to weak US stocks?
・The dollar and yen are reluctant to decline, so they continue to buy dollars
・Fast Lite is the top contributor to price drops <9983> $Fast Retailing(9983.JP)$ , SoftBank G is in the same 2nd place <9984>
■Is it necessary to keep a close eye on external factors due to a sharp decline in the Nikkei Average and the development of sales dominance due to weak US stocks?
The Nikkei Average fell sharply. The front market transaction was closed at 26703.00 yen (estimated turnover of 544.63 million shares), which depreciated 387.76 yen.
The NY Dow in the US stock market fell sharply to 403.89 dollars (-1.34%) on the 14th of the previous weekend. When the October Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the expected inflation rate of the same index exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s observations of drastic interest rate hikes were further strengthened. Sales were rekindled along with the rise in long-term interest rates, and sales where positions were closed over the weekend were also scattered, and the decline widened over closing. The NASDAQ also fell drastically to 3.08%, and in response to the US stock market where all major stock price indices fell, the Nikkei Average started with a sharp drop of 26785.02 yen, 305.74 yen lower than the previous weekend. After that, there was a soft fight.
<6857><7203><9983><9984>Individually, some semiconductor-related stocks such as Toelec, <8035>Lasertech, and <6920>Advantage declined, and large stocks such as Toyota, Fast Lite, and SoftBank G also remained soft. Sony G <6758> $Sony Group(6758.JP)$ <4385>and Mercari, Nintendo <7974> $Nintendo(7974.JP)$ <6532><6861><3697>Growth stocks such as Nidec, <6594>BayCurrent, Keyence, SHIFT, etc. also fell drastically. <3387><2168><4434><4443><3046>In addition, Kriles HD, which was viewed negatively as earnings stalled in the June-8 fiscal year, and Pasona Group, which was viewed negatively on the first quarter drastic profit decline settlement, etc., plummeted, and ServerWorks, Sansan, Jinz Holdings, etc. appeared at the top of the price drop rate in the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market.
<9107><9104>Meanwhile, shipping stocks such as NYK Line, <9101>Kawasaki Kisen, and MOL rose drastically. <9201><9020><9022><6526><8306>The relaxation of border measures continued to be well received, and air transport stocks such as ANA <9202>and JAL remained steady, and land transportation such as JR East and JR Tokai, Socionext, and Mitsubishi UFJ also rose. <2930><3915>In addition, despite the decline in operating income for the first half of the year, Kita no Tatsujin, which announced an upward revision of earnings forecasts for the fiscal year ending 23/2, etc. rose drastically. <6572><3996>Celac<6199>, RPA Holdings, Sign Post, etc. appeared at the top of the price increase rate on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market.
In the sector, mining, pharmaceuticals, and wholesale were at the top of the decline rate, while shipping, air transportation, and electricity/gas had the highest rate of increase. Stocks that have risen in price on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime are 19% of the total, while stocks that have dropped in price are 78%.
Today's Nikkei Stock Average started with a sharp decline, and then there has been a soft rivalry. Domestic investor sentiment also deteriorated because the October Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the expected inflation rate of the same index exceeded expectations, and sales took precedence. The rate of decline of the NASDAQ has exceeded 3%, and speculative purchases are limited due to the weight of high-tech stocks and semiconductor-related stocks in the Tokyo market. In addition, the China/Hong Kong market has remained soft, and US stock futures have remained slightly strong, but the Tokyo market continues to develop softly.
Sales dominance continues to develop even in emerging markets. The TSE Growth Market Core Index, which consists of the Mothers Index and the top 20 stocks by market capitalization in the growth market, fell and then started a soft struggle in the negative zone. Since long-term US interest rates have remained above 4%, severe developments continue for emerging stocks where it is easy to be aware of a sense of high value in terms of valuation. However, intermittent searches for individual material stocks etc. are heading, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Mother's Index was 0.55% lower than the Nikkei Stock Average at the time of closing ahead, and the decline from the Nikkei Stock Average was limited, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market Core Index was 1.66% lower, leading the decline in market capitalization stocks.
Now, although the US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced on the 13th of the previous week rose 8.2% from the same month last year and decelerated from August, it exceeded the expected 8.1% increase. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 6.6% from the same month last year, and greatly accelerated from August, and also exceeded the expected 6.5% increase. Strong growth was seen not only in housing costs, but also in the food and medical fields. Also, the expected inflation rate in the US October University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index on the 14th rose drastically from September to 5.1% one year ahead, and rose 2.9% 5-10 years from September. Long-term US interest rates continued to rise by 4% due to a sense of caution against prolonged inflation.
In Bloomberg on the 14th, San Francisco Federal Bank President Daly said that there are signs of cooling down in the economy, and then he “fully supports” continuing interest rate hikes to a suppressive level in the economy, and the president suggested that raising policy interest rates to 4.5-5% is the “most likely outcome.”
Meanwhile, President George of the Kansas City Federal Reserve has shown a cautious stance on implementing excessively rapid interest rate hikes. It is stated that there is a possibility that interest rate hikes that are too rapid will “disrupt financial markets and the economy in a way that could eventually lead to self-destruction.” Also, it seems that President Bullard of the U.S. St. Louis Federal Reserve made a statement on the 15th to the effect that both meetings leave the possibility that interest rate hikes will be decided by 0.75 points each, even though it is too early to predict interest rate increases for the remaining 2 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings within the year in both November and 12. While being wary of future hawkish statements by senior Fed officials, attention will be drawn to the extent of interest rate hikes at the FOMC in November/December.
Furthermore, in China, the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress opened on the 16th, and President Xi Jinping made an activity report showing future administration policies. Regarding the Taiwan issue, they argue that “the wheel of history is moving forward” toward national unification, and they say they will never promise to abandon the use of force. In the Ukrainian situation, a senior North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) official expressed the view that if Russia uses nuclear weapons, a “physical response” of Ukraine's allies and NATO member states will almost certainly be triggered. In addition to keeping a close eye on the economic situation of each country, it seems necessary to continue to keep a close eye on geopolitical risks such as the situation in Taiwan and the situation in Ukraine.
In this section the previous week, the author suggested that there is a possibility that there is a big decline from next year onwards while considering the possibility that a temporary rebound will occur until the end of the year. However, as various risks are scattered around the world, there seems to be a possibility that even if there is a one-time backlash towards the end of the year, it will not be that big. Also, we are continuing to keep an eye on the market price with the possibility of a major decline from next year onwards, but I would like to anticipate developments where it will slowly decline until the end of the year depending on the FOMC in November/December and other risks. Now, will the Nikkei Average continue to have a soft rivalry in the backstage? While keeping a close eye on trends in US stock futures, I would like to keep an eye on whether intermittent searching continues towards emerging stocks.
■The dollar and yen are reluctant to decline, and dollar purchases continue
The dollar and yen were reluctant to decline in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 17th. Yen purchases, which were disgusted by the depreciation of Japanese stocks due to the drastic depreciation of the Nikkei Stock Average, took precedence, and the dollar fell to mid-148 yen at one point. However, the dollar buying trend, which was expected to accelerate tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) against the backdrop of high US inflation, continued, and prices returned.
The trading range up to this point is the dollar and yen from 148 yen 43 yen to 148 yen 72 sen, the euro yen is 144 yen 37 yen to 144 yen 91 sen, and the euro dollar is 0.9720 dollars to 0.9752 dollars.
■Backstage check stocks
<4270>・5 stocks, such as No. 1 <3562>and BeEx, are stop-high
*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)
<9983>・Fast Lite is the top contributor to price drops, and SoftBank G is in the same 2nd place <9984>
■Economic indicators and statements from key figures
[Economic indicators]
・US September Retail Sales Bulletin: 0% compared to previous month (forecast: +0.2%, August: +0.4%)
・US-September retail sales (excluding automobiles): +0.1% compared to previous month (forecast: -0.1%, August: -0.1%)
・U.S. Import Price Index for September: -1.2% month-on-month (forecast: -1.1%, August: -1.1%
・US-October University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary Value: 59.8 (forecast: 58.8, September: 58.6)
・Preliminary Expected Inflation Rate for the University of Michigan in October: 5.1% (September: 4.7%)
・US-October University of Michigan 5-10 Expected Inflation Rate Preliminary Value: 2.9% (forecast 2.8%, September 2.7%)
・US-August corporate inventory: +0.8% compared to the previous month (forecast: +0.9%, July: +0.5%)
[Remarks by VIPs]
・Bank of England Governor Bailey
“We immediately agreed with the new finance minister Bant about maintaining fiscal sustainability”
・Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda
“Continued monetary easing is appropriate”
“The consumer price index will shrink to a level below 2% next fiscal year”
＜Domestic＞
・ 13:30 August 3rd Industrial Activity Index (month-on-month forecast: +0.3%, July: -0.6%)
・ 13:30 August industrial production revised value (preliminary value: +2.7% compared to the previous month)
＜Overseas＞
Nothing in particular