Bull Session | History Shows the Bear Market in US Stocks May Not Be Over. What Do You Think?
The $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ is down 25% from its peak in little more than nine months since its January peak, shallower and shorter than the similar typical decline over the last century. During this period, the benchmark fell by an average of about 38% in the 15 to 16 months before reaching a bottom, according to Bloomberg. That means the bear market in US stocks may not be over.
Conditions don't look so sanguine to $Bank of America (BAC.US)$'s Savita Subramanian either. The company's head of US equity and quant strategy noted a surge in references to "weak demand" during the season's earnings announcements. There is a long-term correlation between mentions of "weak demand" and the current number of mentions points to ISM at 49, below the 50 level that separates contraction from expansion.
While uncertainty about economic momentum continues to weigh on the longer-term outlook, a number of technical factors also point to a short-term improvement in sentiment. In particular, breadth looks healthier, with the number of stocks hitting New lows relative to new highs falling for three straight weeks on the New York Stock Exchange.
$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ strategist Michael J. Wilson, a long-time equities bear, also said Monday that US stocks are ripe for a short-term rally in the absence of an earnings capitulation or an official recession.
Besides, some Wall Street strategists see the potential for a short-term rally due to corporate earnings. "Earnings could calm stocks in the coming weeks, given that expectations are low and may be easy to beat," Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a note. The announcement cycle "could offer some relief for markets captivated by macroeconomic data."
So mooers, What do you think? What is your prediction for the stock market? Leave your comments below![]()
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Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones
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JasonYU鼓手Ab967817 : Rising stocks are available every day, and the bull market is in every day.
BullRunner : I think as Fed chairman Powell raises rates .75 .50 .25 I’m thinking then we will be out of the water.
quick-witted Goose_7 : The election will determine short term market movements.
70120609 : Only when the interest rate hike is over can we consider the end of the bear market.
intuitive Jackal_354 : actually the real problem is fear mongering the people. we live in a society that believes everything they're told. so politicians preach negative propaganda to control them and their money. if people just went about living their lives and didn't listen to anyone else's opinion, they'd be better off. cause almost all the news is fake and hyped up with lies. then we have the degenerate options gamblers who affect stock prices, they don't trade on the economics of a company, they just try to find a way to manipulate the price to their favor.
Yituoshi : Copy the bottom sqqq,soxs.
Blessedme : The bull is going to start running. Get ready!
Dream Weaver : the war with China, along with outcome of Ukraine war, will create the necessary buy & sell trading opportunities short term. staying in tune & acting nimbly is key.