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BOCOM International: Q3 e-commerce recovery is in line with expectations. The Double 11 Shopping Festival may boost demand
In Q3, after adjustment, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 7.1% year-on-year (3% compared with Q2), showing a monthly recovery trend. Offline consumption, especially catering recovery, was under pressure. In September, catering consumption fell 1.7% year on year.
The increasing trend of e-commerce platform profit margin will continue. It is expected that in Q3, the decline of Alibaba's mainland e-commerce GMV will narrow to 2%, and the pace of recovery will be consistent with the overall market; The performance of $JD.com (JD.US)$ Supermarket category is resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in self support; $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ is expected to maintain double-digit growth by virtue of its cost-effective user mentality and more demanding category structure; $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ GMV increased by 26%, and the commission rate may slightly increase compared with the same period.
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