Bull and Bear Trap
We see markets having a bear market rally in this current dire situation, while its true that we may be close to the bottom. But don’t buy in now as market situation is UNFAVOURABLE for businesses.
Both bulls and bears will be equally caught in the trap and the hunter is the fed. I predict that more blood will be spilled after the midterms election. So stay on the sidelines for now.
The question that retail investors may have “ so, when should I start buying ?”. Here are some signs to look out for:
- Downward trend in inflation numbers
- Fed pivot to a point where the macro environment is favourable for businesses again. i.e. when lending gets cheaper instead of governments handing out stimulus cheques
- Republicans gain control of the house and senate
- China eases Covid lockdowns or reopen its borders to a certain extent
- signs of ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine War
if none of the above happens, u can be 100% assured that there more pain to come. If you dont know what the pain feels like, imagine getting an uppercut from a 25 year old Mike Tyson.
Stay safe.
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71263309 : How do you think the revenue of these companies will be worse in the fourth quarter
styleomileo : Well, the most important one is US China relations, whether Biden-Xi meet in November will result in any further decoupling of economies or truce or removal of barriers..
SANDRO 善子 : Complication: with Nov2-FOMC & Nov8-Mid-term election, 2 uncertainties happens at almost the same time-frame.So up/down is unpredictable
KnockoutTrader OP 71263309 : The only quickest way for the Fed to depress inflation and stabilize prices is to make people poorer.
KnockoutTrader OP SANDRO 善子 : No complications, it will be bad news, it's just how bad