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Difficult decision: Fed faces rate rise dilemma
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The Fed Still has Ground to Cover

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Justin Zacks joined discussion · Nov 4, 2022 01:46
The stock market rallied Wednesday following the 2 p.m. EST release of the results of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points as expected but changed the wording of their accompanying statement slightly.
“In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments,” the Fed said.
The idea that the Fed might slow its tightening schedule to let the current hikes it has already made take further effect was seen as a dovish sign by market participants.
The rally did not last long as the comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later were much more hawkish. Powell said the rate at which interest rates top out, the so-called “terminal rate”, would likely be higher than previously expected.
“We have some ground left to cover here, and cover it we will,” he said
Both bonds and stocks sold off on his comments. The S&P 500 index closed lower by 2.5% on the day, its worst performance on a Fed day since January 2021.
Powell’s comments likely mean that the market won’t turn higher until there is a turn in the economic data. Next up is Friday’s unemployment report for October. Economists expect the rate to increase to 3.6% from a previous 3.5% in September. In this case bad news would be good news. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate would mean the economy is cooling off and the Fed would likely not have to raise interest rates as much. Such a reading could spark a rally in stocks. On the other hand, if the rate is lower than expected we could be in for a further move to the downside.
The views and opinions of Mooney Navigator are those of the author who is not an associated person of Moomoo Financial Inc. The view and opinions of the author do not reflect the views of Moomoo Financial Inc. or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions of the author are provided for informational purposes only, do not constitute a recommendation of an investment strategy or to buy, sell, or hold any investment in any form, and are not research reports and should not be used to serve as the basis for any investment decision. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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