Economic Data Following Jerome Powell's Comments
Check out the short video to get some market analysis before tomorrows economic data release. Click the link below.
From YouTube
All investors eyes will be on the first batch of economic data be released following Jerome Powell's comments. tomorrow morning at 8:30 Eastern U.S. Time Zone non-farm payrolls and unemployment data will hit the news wire. Based off of Jerome Pals comments, if this batch of economic data comes out with surprising results then the market will surely react accordingly. Recently the market has been very sensitive to economic data so it would be smart to pay attention to see how the market reacts to the first batch of economic data to come out after the interest rate report was released last Wednesday.
It will also be interesting to see how the Fed officials feel about the current economic situation. A few hours after the economic data release Fed governor Rosenberg will speak. Other Fed officials will be speaking as well. It will be interesting to hear the Fed official's comments after the release of the interest rate decision last Wednesday.
Below you can see the four hour candles for $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(SEP4)(ESmain.US$. SPY recently formed a triple tapping pattern near a downward training resistance that has held the S&P 500 futures price down for several months. Jerome Powell's comments came at the end of this triple top and the market tanked following his remarks. Notice the upward training support SPY's price has dropped below. This is a short-term berish development.
I grabbed a short position on the S&P 500 while watching the market crash for the day on Wednesday due to the federal reserves interest rate decision. $VIX Index Futures(AUG4)(VXmain.US$ was climbing as equities were falling after j. Powell spoke, so the short position felt safe. But after the market moves of today, I had to cover my short position just in case. Notice in the chart below how VIX futures price jumped nicely off of Powell's comments, but came right back down. I might have covered my short position prematurely, but it was short-dated as the expiration was very closs and I can always convert it back to a short position.
In the chart below, you can see the US dollar index. It appears that we have a nice downward sloping price channel that the price action has been range found within for a few weeks. The price of the dollar index is near resistance of this price channel. If this trend holds then you would expect the price of the dollar to drop back down to support.
In the chart below you can see crude oil futures. I thought it was very interesting to see how most equities crashed off of J. Powell's comments, but oil seems to hold up a bit better than equities. I noticed crude oil future's price is near resistance of this large wedge pattern. Watch for more consolidation within the wedge. I'm feeling kind of bullish on oil at the moment, so watch for a break out to the upside as well.
Keep your eyes out for the release of the economic data tomorrow morning. They should move the markets for the day. Hopefully we will not get another bear market "Bloody Friday."
$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust(DIA.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$ $VIX Index Futures(AUG4)(VXmain.US$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $Gold Futures(AUG4)(GCmain.US$ $Powershares Exchange Traded Fd Tst Db Us Dollar Index Bullish Fund Etf(UUP.US$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US$ $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US$ $Ishares Iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Etf(LQD.US$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ $Crude Oil Futures(SEP4)(CLmain.US$
$TENCENT(00700.HK$ $SSE Composite Index(000001.SH$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG$ $NIO-SW(09866.HK$ $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG$ $NIO Inc(NIO.US$ $BILIBILI-W(09626.HK$ $Bilibili(BILI.US$ $Baidu(BIDU.US$ $BIDU-SW(09888.HK$ $XPeng(XPEV.US$ $Li Auto(LI.US$ $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK$ $BYD Company Limited(002594.SZ$ $S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG$
$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust(DIA.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$ $VIX Index Futures(AUG4)(VXmain.US$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $Gold Futures(AUG4)(GCmain.US$ $Powershares Exchange Traded Fd Tst Db Us Dollar Index Bullish Fund Etf(UUP.US$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US$ $Ishares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Etf(HYG.US$ $Ishares Iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Etf(LQD.US$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ $Crude Oil Futures(SEP4)(CLmain.US$
$TENCENT(00700.HK$ $SSE Composite Index(000001.SH$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH$ $CSI 300 Index(000300.SH$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG$ $NIO-SW(09866.HK$ $NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG$ $NIO Inc(NIO.US$ $BILIBILI-W(09626.HK$ $Bilibili(BILI.US$ $Baidu(BIDU.US$ $BIDU-SW(09888.HK$ $XPeng(XPEV.US$ $Li Auto(LI.US$ $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK$ $BYD Company Limited(002594.SZ$ $S&P/ASX 200(.XJO.AU$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index(.STI.SG$
$Apple(AAPL.US$ $Tesla(TSLA.US$ $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ $Amazon(AMZN.US$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ $Meta Platforms(META.US$ $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$
$Chevron(CVX.US$ $Phillips 66(PSX.US$ $Valero Energy(VLO.US$ $Devon Energy(DVN.US$ $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US$ $W&T Offshore(WTI.US$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US$ $United Sts Brent Oil Fd Lp Unit(BNO.US$ $Imperial Petroleum(IMPP.US$ $Houston American Energy(HUSA.US$ $Indonesia Energy(INDO.US$ $BP PLC(BP.US$ $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US$
$Mullen Automotive(MULN.US$ $Arcimoto(FUV.US$ $Nikola(NKLA.US$ $Fisker(FSR.US$ $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US$ $Lordstown Motors(RIDE.US$ $Full Truck Alliance(YMM.US$ $Ford Motor(F.US$ $General Motors(GM.US$
$Chevron(CVX.US$ $Phillips 66(PSX.US$ $Valero Energy(VLO.US$ $Devon Energy(DVN.US$ $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US$ $W&T Offshore(WTI.US$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US$ $United Sts Brent Oil Fd Lp Unit(BNO.US$ $Imperial Petroleum(IMPP.US$ $Houston American Energy(HUSA.US$ $Indonesia Energy(INDO.US$ $BP PLC(BP.US$ $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US$
$Mullen Automotive(MULN.US$ $Arcimoto(FUV.US$ $Nikola(NKLA.US$ $Fisker(FSR.US$ $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US$ $Lordstown Motors(RIDE.US$ $Full Truck Alliance(YMM.US$ $Ford Motor(F.US$ $General Motors(GM.US$
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gideonl : Thanks for the analysis and sharing! In overall, it seems to be bearish tomorrow? How would the market react if job data is bad?
SpyderCall OP gideonl : currently bad economic data has caused a positive reaction for equities as it seems like it makes investors believe that the fed will slow the rate hikes. Also the bad data is bringing down the dollar which is good for equities in the current market environment
razo2 : oh boy the oil is going up and the bloody HK market is having a FOMO. watch inflation go up again my friends. once again for those that love the rally, there is only one road to the rally which is more pain.
SpyderCall OP razo2 : correct. any rally in this bear market should be short lived until the fed pivots or stops/slows the rate hikes. the only reason the market might possibly rip prematurely is if the market or smart money prices in a year or several years into the future. I've heard people use that explanation from time to time. After all VIX is falling as investors are piling into calls. I'm still not convinced the bear market should be over yet in my opinion.
SpyderCall OP razo2 : oil is looking very good. much better than a lot of equities
razo2 SpyderCall OP : yes correct. but it is bad for inflation. lol. i have nothing to complain since I am in the oil market.
razo2 SpyderCall OP : Kübler-Ross model period. lol.
SpyderCall OP razo2 : very true. and the fed cant do very much to manipulate the price of oil besides trying to cause a global recession.
SpyderCall OP razo2 : Kubler-Ross. very funny. never heard of that until now
Mob-Town-Bulls SpyderCall OP : well I hope my puts print today i am thinking it will probably run up in the am to trap sum bulls but I firmly believe it's going to drop after the first 30 minutes but the market may have other plans
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