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The dollar's tumble on expectations of a Fed rate pivot brought Brent crude to almost USD100 on Mon. By the close though, crude fell further to settle the day in the negative, exhibiting the choppy trade typical before weekly oil inventory data due from the U.S. government. The Weekly Petroleum Status Reports released the last two Wednesdays by the EIA, have been fairly supportive of longs in the market.
China's affirmation at the weekend of its commitment to a strict COVID containment approach also offset any bullish fervor emerging from news of recovering Chinese crude imports
Oil bulls, meanwhile, are banking on the dollar to continue falling ahead of this week's release of the CPI on Thursday.
Economists expect the annual reading for the CPI in October at 8.0% vs September's 8.2%, and the monthly rate at 0.6% vs the previous 0.4%. But if both the annual and monthly readings come in sharply lower, the Fed will likely adopt a rate hike of just 50 basis points in December from the four straight increases of 75-bp between June and November. The dollar has been tumbling on that notion.
Brent crude settled down 0.7% at USD97.92, while WTI crude settled down 0.9% at USD91.79.
If oil goes well beyond USD100, inflation will not go down meaningfully given the energy input in almost everything we consume.