TSLA
Tesla
-- 403.840 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 134.290 MSTR
MicroStrategy
-- 289.620 PLTR
Palantir
-- 75.630 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 120.790 
Current market view
Fundamentally speaking, the core logic currently affecting the market trend is that for hawks, inflation must show a downward trend, thereby ending the strong US dollar tide cycle. Domestically, the real estate sector must at least hit bottom and move sideways, if not rebound.
The reason is that the US stock market is filled with many technology growth stocks, which require a low interest rate environment to freely burn cash, while also providing high valuation space, benefiting growth stocks. Therefore, the overall trend of the US stock market is extremely sensitive to interest rates. However, looking at the current divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq, the last time this occurred was in the year 2000, which is actually the impact of interest rate hikes.
During the interest rate hiking process, the impact is actually not significant, it only suppresses liquidity valuations. The discomfort for US-listed companies comes after interest rate hikes when the yield continues to run at high levels, which is a substantial lagging effect. Therefore, the significant decline in the Nasdaq this year is just pushing down valuations. It is expected that in the first half of next year, the decline will be due to deteriorating fundamentals.
Therefore, personally I feel that the US stock market will eventually experience a major decline to catch the bottom. Currently, the Dow is actually a market's dead-cat bounce in anticipation of the shift by the Fed. If the market does not recognize the Fed's shift, it means substantial fundamental deterioration is true, and there is a high likelihood that the market will continue to decline under pessimistic expectations even if there is an interest rate cut.
As for A-shares, due to the market's industry distribution issue, there is too much dependence on the real estate chain. If the real estate sector does not perform well, the real estate sector itself is a heavyweight stock, which will drag down the entire fundamentals from upstream finance to downstream building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, and many others that all show poor fundamental performance, many of which are heavyweight stocks.
For the market to strengthen, there must be sectors with high certainty in the medium to long term, and they must also be large-sized sectors. In recent years, the structural leaders in sectors such as consumer, cyclicals, mainland real estate, semiconductors, and new energy funds were actually mainly driven by fundamentals.
In the current market environment, there is a clear lack of varieties that can be driven by fundamental logic in the medium to long term, so sector rotation is like an electric fan, with the 50% weight playing a desperate drop as speculative funds take advantage of thematic stocks inside the exchange to harvest profits. Essentially, it is impossible to fix long-term liquidity expectations with fundamental factors, which is why the overall market focus is on a continuous decline from 3600 to 3400 to 3100.
Specifically in terms of trading, personally I feel that A-shares still need to endure slowly. Don't think that the heavy drops in the 50 index and the 300 index mean it is a long-term bottom. Consider Maotai at 1500, and Ning Wang at 400, both are at the weekly and monthly chart top formation levels. Moreover, once they decline, they will suppress their respective sectors in terms of valuation and liquidity, as the market has already experienced the power of Maotai's guillotine-like sharp drop, causing popular stocks to hit limit down inexplicably daily.
So if you think the broad index has dropped a lot and seems low, it may still continue to decline. When dealing with the broader index, one needs to consider the momentum of its component stocks. Therefore, personally, these two weeks are considered for oversold rebound trades. There was a specific review of the previous 50 cycle in the previous column, mentioning that a reversal must be allowed to emerge from the market and be confirmed multiple times.
Based on this, the best entry point for the medium to long term in the future is around the middle of next year, or even the second half of the year, when the fundamentals gradually become clear. It would be ideal if both the Ma Index and the Ning Index hit new lows, and the market clears off its structurally bullish debts, only then can the next market bull cycle be incubated.
In the end, it still comes down to the same saying, individual investors must rely on a bull market to make money, even if it's a structurally bullish one.
In this bear market with index oscillations sinking down, the market is full of layered pancake-like seasoned players, and the trends are becoming more and more complex. The sign is that the rebound strength is getting weaker, the shifts are getting faster, making it highly unlikely to be profitable in terms of probability. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$
The reason is that the US stock market is filled with many technology growth stocks, which require a low interest rate environment to freely burn cash, while also providing high valuation space, benefiting growth stocks. Therefore, the overall trend of the US stock market is extremely sensitive to interest rates. However, looking at the current divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq, the last time this occurred was in the year 2000, which is actually the impact of interest rate hikes.
During the interest rate hiking process, the impact is actually not significant, it only suppresses liquidity valuations. The discomfort for US-listed companies comes after interest rate hikes when the yield continues to run at high levels, which is a substantial lagging effect. Therefore, the significant decline in the Nasdaq this year is just pushing down valuations. It is expected that in the first half of next year, the decline will be due to deteriorating fundamentals.
Therefore, personally I feel that the US stock market will eventually experience a major decline to catch the bottom. Currently, the Dow is actually a market's dead-cat bounce in anticipation of the shift by the Fed. If the market does not recognize the Fed's shift, it means substantial fundamental deterioration is true, and there is a high likelihood that the market will continue to decline under pessimistic expectations even if there is an interest rate cut.
As for A-shares, due to the market's industry distribution issue, there is too much dependence on the real estate chain. If the real estate sector does not perform well, the real estate sector itself is a heavyweight stock, which will drag down the entire fundamentals from upstream finance to downstream building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, and many others that all show poor fundamental performance, many of which are heavyweight stocks.
For the market to strengthen, there must be sectors with high certainty in the medium to long term, and they must also be large-sized sectors. In recent years, the structural leaders in sectors such as consumer, cyclicals, mainland real estate, semiconductors, and new energy funds were actually mainly driven by fundamentals.
In the current market environment, there is a clear lack of varieties that can be driven by fundamental logic in the medium to long term, so sector rotation is like an electric fan, with the 50% weight playing a desperate drop as speculative funds take advantage of thematic stocks inside the exchange to harvest profits. Essentially, it is impossible to fix long-term liquidity expectations with fundamental factors, which is why the overall market focus is on a continuous decline from 3600 to 3400 to 3100.
Specifically in terms of trading, personally I feel that A-shares still need to endure slowly. Don't think that the heavy drops in the 50 index and the 300 index mean it is a long-term bottom. Consider Maotai at 1500, and Ning Wang at 400, both are at the weekly and monthly chart top formation levels. Moreover, once they decline, they will suppress their respective sectors in terms of valuation and liquidity, as the market has already experienced the power of Maotai's guillotine-like sharp drop, causing popular stocks to hit limit down inexplicably daily.
So if you think the broad index has dropped a lot and seems low, it may still continue to decline. When dealing with the broader index, one needs to consider the momentum of its component stocks. Therefore, personally, these two weeks are considered for oversold rebound trades. There was a specific review of the previous 50 cycle in the previous column, mentioning that a reversal must be allowed to emerge from the market and be confirmed multiple times.
Based on this, the best entry point for the medium to long term in the future is around the middle of next year, or even the second half of the year, when the fundamentals gradually become clear. It would be ideal if both the Ma Index and the Ning Index hit new lows, and the market clears off its structurally bullish debts, only then can the next market bull cycle be incubated.
In the end, it still comes down to the same saying, individual investors must rely on a bull market to make money, even if it's a structurally bullish one.
In this bear market with index oscillations sinking down, the market is full of layered pancake-like seasoned players, and the trends are becoming more and more complex. The sign is that the rebound strength is getting weaker, the shifts are getting faster, making it highly unlikely to be profitable in terms of probability. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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