$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Why is the market so fearful and expected ...
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ Why is the market so fearful and expected to grow so high?
On the one hand, oil prices rebounded in October; on the other hand, housing, the core project with the highest share, showed an upward trend in June-September.
But in fact, the market is somewhat overestimating the impact of high-weight projects.
From a month-on-month perspective, energy prices in October were actually higher than in September, and they also rose again after falling since July, so oil prices did “increase” the CPI increase in October.
However, although food prices are also higher than in September (month-on-month increase), the month-on-month growth rate is the lowest this year, which is indeed a good sign. Since food is more important than energy in the overall CPI, the parts outside the core of the October CPI should be “better than expected.” Among the core projects, shelters (shelters), which account for the largest share, increased 0.8% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year, which is also the highest level in recent years, and is the strongest factor supporting this quarter's CPI. What does a CPI below market expectations mean?
First, the CPI decline has exceeded expectations, reducing the firm belief that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a certain extent. Currently, judging from CME's interest rate observation tool, the 50 basis points and 75 basis points of interest rate hikes in December before the CPI was announced were five or five, and the probability of 50 basis points after the announcement rose to over 80% $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US$
On the one hand, oil prices rebounded in October; on the other hand, housing, the core project with the highest share, showed an upward trend in June-September.
But in fact, the market is somewhat overestimating the impact of high-weight projects.
From a month-on-month perspective, energy prices in October were actually higher than in September, and they also rose again after falling since July, so oil prices did “increase” the CPI increase in October.
However, although food prices are also higher than in September (month-on-month increase), the month-on-month growth rate is the lowest this year, which is indeed a good sign. Since food is more important than energy in the overall CPI, the parts outside the core of the October CPI should be “better than expected.” Among the core projects, shelters (shelters), which account for the largest share, increased 0.8% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year, which is also the highest level in recent years, and is the strongest factor supporting this quarter's CPI. What does a CPI below market expectations mean?
First, the CPI decline has exceeded expectations, reducing the firm belief that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a certain extent. Currently, judging from CME's interest rate observation tool, the 50 basis points and 75 basis points of interest rate hikes in December before the CPI was announced were five or five, and the probability of 50 basis points after the announcement rose to over 80% $Apple(AAPL.US$ $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US$
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