$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ 7000 units of production capacity, 3...
It has a production capacity of 7,000 and can produce 35,000 orders in 5 years.
If the average selling price is $100,000 per vehicle with a profit margin of 20%, the profit per vehicle is $20,000. The profit for 7,000 vehicles per year is $0.14 billion. If it can support a PE ratio of 10 times, Lucid's market cap would be $1.4 billion.
And now Lucid's market cap is $18 billion, with a stock price of $10.8. If we calculate based on a market cap of $1.4 billion, its current stock price is only worth $0.84.
If Lucid can solve the supply chain problem and achieve a production capacity of 500,000 vehicles per year by 2030, which is 70 times the current capacity, the stock price would be 70 times, approximately $60.
But a production capacity of 500,000 vehicles cannot have an average price of $100,000. It is estimated to have an average price of $40,000, so the stock price should be discounted by 60%. In other words, the stock price in 2030 would be $24.
To achieve this goal, it would be best for Lucid's CEO to resolve the complex international situation first, otherwise the production capacity cannot be discussed. In addition, Lucid should transition to hydrogen energy autos as soon as possible, because from first principles, hydrogen energy is the future of new energy, and electric power is only transitional.
In conclusion, if Lucid is lucky, it can continue operating after producing the 35,000 orders for 5 years. If it is not lucky, it will cease to exist within 5 years.
The above conclusion is only valid for new electric car companies other than Tesla, and the analysis is for reference only, not as investment advice!
If the average selling price is $100,000 per vehicle with a profit margin of 20%, the profit per vehicle is $20,000. The profit for 7,000 vehicles per year is $0.14 billion. If it can support a PE ratio of 10 times, Lucid's market cap would be $1.4 billion.
And now Lucid's market cap is $18 billion, with a stock price of $10.8. If we calculate based on a market cap of $1.4 billion, its current stock price is only worth $0.84.
If Lucid can solve the supply chain problem and achieve a production capacity of 500,000 vehicles per year by 2030, which is 70 times the current capacity, the stock price would be 70 times, approximately $60.
But a production capacity of 500,000 vehicles cannot have an average price of $100,000. It is estimated to have an average price of $40,000, so the stock price should be discounted by 60%. In other words, the stock price in 2030 would be $24.
To achieve this goal, it would be best for Lucid's CEO to resolve the complex international situation first, otherwise the production capacity cannot be discussed. In addition, Lucid should transition to hydrogen energy autos as soon as possible, because from first principles, hydrogen energy is the future of new energy, and electric power is only transitional.
In conclusion, if Lucid is lucky, it can continue operating after producing the 35,000 orders for 5 years. If it is not lucky, it will cease to exist within 5 years.
The above conclusion is only valid for new electric car companies other than Tesla, and the analysis is for reference only, not as investment advice!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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lucky lim : The analysis is very thorough and decisive in buying short