$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ With 7,000 mass production capacity,...
With 7,000 mass production capacity, orders of 35,000 vehicles can be produced for 5 years.
If the average sales price is 10w for one vehicle, the profit margin is 20%, the profit for one car is 2w, and 7,000 vehicles would be 140 million dollars a year. If it can support 10 times PE, Lucid's market value will be 1.4 billion.
Now, Lucid's market capitalization is 18 billion, and the stock price is 10.8 billion. If you calculate the market value of 1.4 billion dollars, its current stock price is only 0.84 dollars.
For example, Lucid can solve supply chain problems and achieve the beautiful wish of 50w annual production capacity by 2030. Well, the production capacity is 70 times what it is now, and the stock price is 70 times that of about 60 dollars.
However, it is impossible for a car with a production capacity of 500,000 to average a 10w knife. It is estimated to be an average 4w knife, so the stock price should be discounted by 40%. In other words, the stock price in 2030 will be $24.
To achieve this goal, it is best for Lucid's boss to resolve the current complicated international situation first; otherwise, there is no way to talk about production capacity. Furthermore, Lucid should transition to hydrogen energy vehicles as soon as possible, because starting from the first principle, hydrogen energy is the future of new energy; electricity is simply excessive.
At the end of the day, my conclusion is that if Lucid is lucky, it can close its doors after 5 years after the order has been placed for 35,000 vehicles. If you're unlucky, you'll be dead within five years.
The above conclusion is valid for all new tram manufacturers other than Tesla. The analysis is for reference only and is not an investment suggestion!
If the average sales price is 10w for one vehicle, the profit margin is 20%, the profit for one car is 2w, and 7,000 vehicles would be 140 million dollars a year. If it can support 10 times PE, Lucid's market value will be 1.4 billion.
Now, Lucid's market capitalization is 18 billion, and the stock price is 10.8 billion. If you calculate the market value of 1.4 billion dollars, its current stock price is only 0.84 dollars.
For example, Lucid can solve supply chain problems and achieve the beautiful wish of 50w annual production capacity by 2030. Well, the production capacity is 70 times what it is now, and the stock price is 70 times that of about 60 dollars.
However, it is impossible for a car with a production capacity of 500,000 to average a 10w knife. It is estimated to be an average 4w knife, so the stock price should be discounted by 40%. In other words, the stock price in 2030 will be $24.
To achieve this goal, it is best for Lucid's boss to resolve the current complicated international situation first; otherwise, there is no way to talk about production capacity. Furthermore, Lucid should transition to hydrogen energy vehicles as soon as possible, because starting from the first principle, hydrogen energy is the future of new energy; electricity is simply excessive.
At the end of the day, my conclusion is that if Lucid is lucky, it can close its doors after 5 years after the order has been placed for 35,000 vehicles. If you're unlucky, you'll be dead within five years.
The above conclusion is valid for all new tram manufacturers other than Tesla. The analysis is for reference only and is not an investment suggestion!
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luck lin : The analysis is very thorough and decisive in buying short