海阔天空任鸟飞 commented on a stock · Nov 13, 2022 21:47

Wall Street's 'biggest bear' changes his mind and supports US stocks: this rebound is not over yet.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ Michael J. Wilson, known as the 'biggest bear on Wall Street', firmly supports the rebound of US stocks, stating that the S&P may be pushed up to 4300 points, but still leaves himself a 'way out', he said that if it fails to hold the 200-day moving average, the rebound cannot be realized.

After the release of the CPI data in the United States on Thursday, 'the biggest bear on Wall Street' Michael J. Wilson continues to be bullish on US stocks, emphasizing that this rebound is not over yet, and over the past month, his title as 'the biggest bear on Wall Street' may have become a thing of the past.

Wilson is one of the most famous bears on Wall Street, accurately predicting the sharp drop in US stocks this year. However, starting on October 17th, Wilson began to support the 'technical' rebound in US stocks. In his report, he wrote that the S&P 500 index has fallen by 25% this year and is testing the 'important support bottom' of the 200-day moving average, which may trigger a technical rebound, speculating that the S&P 500 index may rise to 4150 points.

In less than a month, on November 11th, in a media interview after the release of unexpectedly low CPI data in the United States, Wilson stated that once the S&P 500 breaks through the 200-day moving average (currently around 4081 points), it could push the rebound up to 4300 points, higher than his previous prediction of 4150.Wilson said:I don't think the current rebound is over yet, this trend will continue for a long time, possibly until Thanksgiving, or even early December because once it breaks through the 200-day moving average, it may ignite some kind of 'fighting spirit' in the market, attracting more funds to enter, pushing the rebound up to 4200-4300 points.

I believe that the current rebound is not over yet, and this trend will continue for a long time, possibly until Thanksgiving or even early December. This is because once the 200-day moving average is broken, it may ignite some kind of "fighting spirit" in the market, attracting more funds to enter and pushing the rebound to 4200-4300 points.

With inflation peaking and the market's expectation of the Fed slowing down rate hikes, Wilson believes that this will ease the pressure on growth stocks and other assets, driving the next round of stock market rebound. He said:

With inflation peaking and interest rate hikes slowing down, the Nasdaq index, which has been lagging behind in this rebound, can now catch up, as the rebound of the Nasdaq is directly related to changes in interest rates.

Of course, just as Wilson left himself a "way out" in October, he still mentioned the existence of downside risks, and emphasized that this is just a bear market rebound without fundamental support.bear market rebound, without fundamental supporthe said:

If this market cannot hold the 200-week moving average, then a rebound is unlikely to occur. Instead, it could head directly towards 3400 or lower.

With the decline in interest rates, the P/E ratio has started to rise. The rebound in the stock market this time is driven by valuation, but it is important to note that this is based on the assumption that the EPS calculation is correct and the P/E ratio approaches fair value. It is clear that they have not yet reached a reasonable P/E ratio. This is still a bear market, it may tear you apart.

In addition, regarding the collapse of FTX and its impact on US stocks, Wilson believes that despite the selling pressure on cryptocurrency, the US stock market remains strong, indicating no correlation between cryptocurrency and US stocks. He said:

Cryptocurrencies have been sold off on a large scale, with FTX going bankrupt in just a few days. The whole situation sounds frightening, but the US stocks have risen for two consecutive days, indicating that the two are not closely related.

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