$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ The data also exceeded expectations. A...
The data also exceeded expectations. After the last data was released, the stock price fell sharply and opened low. A few minutes after opening low (the NASDAQ was less than 1% away from 1w at the time), the market began to rebound sharply, rising from more than -3% to more than 2% in the intraday period. The trend is even smoother than this time.
How can we predict this trend, or is there anything we can learn from.
After the last data, the trend of the day was a typical run out of steam. Some of the funds began to rebound emotionally. In addition, the NASDAQ was infinitely close to falling below 1w points at the time, and there will definitely be funds to participate in the rebound market game. As a result, the market came out of disagreement.
The situation at the time was that the difference in CPI data that exceeded expectations caused the market to plummet several times, because once the data was very poor, large amounts of capital would inertia participate in shorting and selling, so funds to kill bears or reverse games began.
The current CPI data is a standard positive event. Although the CPI remained at an increase of 7 points or more, there was a decline. Because before the data came out, the market was very well priced for CPI, so even if there was only a glimmer of favorable hope, it is likely that it will push the market short. This is the case this week. Of course, the differences are still very obvious. It can be seen that the market experienced a consistent trend of differences in the first half hour of opening. This is also the best chance for bears to run. For example, I decisively shorted Tesla at the start of the market. Fortunately, I ran fast, otherwise GG.
If you have to delve into the issue of inflation, in fact, I don't think there has been a substantial improvement. When will the 7 point CPI drop to 2? Perhaps a recession is the best solution. However, when it comes to stock trading, the market game is about percentages that are accurate to the decimal point. It doesn't matter what the essence is; it only works for a period of time after the data is released; it actually doesn't matter what the trend is after that.
Stock trading, the most important thing is the game of expectations. The market's pricing of individual stocks is based on existing facts, not the current price, so you must clearly consider what stock trading is for. Typical examples are Hong Kong stocks. Have the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks changed significantly in the past month? Take Hang Seng Technology's component stocks. Most companies have not had any particularly significant events in the past month. The biggest fluctuation comes from the outside world, from the macro environment, and from market sentiment and future expectations. This year's market uncertainty should be the biggest year since the pandemic. In an age of uncertainty, stock price trends will also be game-like. Some people are rebounding, others continue to be bearish, and others are watching.
The Hang Seng Index continued to rebound sharply this week, so I recommended shorting with a stop-loss last week. Although the 20-day line pressure is obvious from historical data, it is a position with a high win rate, but in the case of low positions and multiple wins, the probability of a low-probability event occurring will increase dramatically. This wave of rebound in Hong Kong stocks is stronger than the one in March. Of course, the depth of adjustment this time is also much greater than the previous one.
Bouncing back to its current position, I personally feel that Hong Kong stocks can mostly focus on wait-and-see, and have strong thoughts of chasing bulls and shorting. After all, this wave of rebound, to put it bluntly, is a desperate market after liquidity slumped. (Currency (for interest rates) +policy (for the pandemic)).
Therefore, the current position of Hong Kong stocks is quite poor, mainly watching movies. As for US stocks, it is more likely to be a rebound. It is a centralized release of bears after being suppressed for too long. It's hard to say how far they can go.
Double short the Hang Seng Index 07500 and wait and see
Double short the Hang Seng Tech Index 07552 and wait and see
Double long Hang Seng Index 07200 and wait and see
Double your time and wait and see Hang Seng Tech Index 07226
tqqq (triple the Nasdaq index) and 07266 double as the Nasdaq wait-and-see
Sqqq (triple the short NASDAQ) and 07568 double the short NASDAQ wait-and-see $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$
How can we predict this trend, or is there anything we can learn from.
After the last data, the trend of the day was a typical run out of steam. Some of the funds began to rebound emotionally. In addition, the NASDAQ was infinitely close to falling below 1w points at the time, and there will definitely be funds to participate in the rebound market game. As a result, the market came out of disagreement.
The situation at the time was that the difference in CPI data that exceeded expectations caused the market to plummet several times, because once the data was very poor, large amounts of capital would inertia participate in shorting and selling, so funds to kill bears or reverse games began.
The current CPI data is a standard positive event. Although the CPI remained at an increase of 7 points or more, there was a decline. Because before the data came out, the market was very well priced for CPI, so even if there was only a glimmer of favorable hope, it is likely that it will push the market short. This is the case this week. Of course, the differences are still very obvious. It can be seen that the market experienced a consistent trend of differences in the first half hour of opening. This is also the best chance for bears to run. For example, I decisively shorted Tesla at the start of the market. Fortunately, I ran fast, otherwise GG.
If you have to delve into the issue of inflation, in fact, I don't think there has been a substantial improvement. When will the 7 point CPI drop to 2? Perhaps a recession is the best solution. However, when it comes to stock trading, the market game is about percentages that are accurate to the decimal point. It doesn't matter what the essence is; it only works for a period of time after the data is released; it actually doesn't matter what the trend is after that.
Stock trading, the most important thing is the game of expectations. The market's pricing of individual stocks is based on existing facts, not the current price, so you must clearly consider what stock trading is for. Typical examples are Hong Kong stocks. Have the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks changed significantly in the past month? Take Hang Seng Technology's component stocks. Most companies have not had any particularly significant events in the past month. The biggest fluctuation comes from the outside world, from the macro environment, and from market sentiment and future expectations. This year's market uncertainty should be the biggest year since the pandemic. In an age of uncertainty, stock price trends will also be game-like. Some people are rebounding, others continue to be bearish, and others are watching.
The Hang Seng Index continued to rebound sharply this week, so I recommended shorting with a stop-loss last week. Although the 20-day line pressure is obvious from historical data, it is a position with a high win rate, but in the case of low positions and multiple wins, the probability of a low-probability event occurring will increase dramatically. This wave of rebound in Hong Kong stocks is stronger than the one in March. Of course, the depth of adjustment this time is also much greater than the previous one.
Bouncing back to its current position, I personally feel that Hong Kong stocks can mostly focus on wait-and-see, and have strong thoughts of chasing bulls and shorting. After all, this wave of rebound, to put it bluntly, is a desperate market after liquidity slumped. (Currency (for interest rates) +policy (for the pandemic)).
Therefore, the current position of Hong Kong stocks is quite poor, mainly watching movies. As for US stocks, it is more likely to be a rebound. It is a centralized release of bears after being suppressed for too long. It's hard to say how far they can go.
Double short the Hang Seng Index 07500 and wait and see
Double short the Hang Seng Tech Index 07552 and wait and see
Double long Hang Seng Index 07200 and wait and see
Double your time and wait and see Hang Seng Tech Index 07226
tqqq (triple the Nasdaq index) and 07266 double as the Nasdaq wait-and-see
Sqqq (triple the short NASDAQ) and 07568 double the short NASDAQ wait-and-see $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$
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