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Chip stocks: How to Invest nearing a turning point?
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Buffett invested in TSMC

In the latest filing, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed three new stock positions in its portfolio, namely,

TSMC +$4,120 million
Louisiana Pac +$297 million
Jefferies Financial +$13 million

Of which, TSMC is the biggest position and perhaps the biggest surprise.

We won't know whether it was Buffett who made this investment decision or his deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler did.

But given the size of the position, it is likely Buffett who made the call.

TSMC is Berkshire's 11th largest position, representing about 1.3% of the portfolio.

This is a surprise because Buffett rarely venture out of US stocks. He invested in BYD in 2008 and a handful of Japanese stocks during the Covid period. That's about it.

You can argue that TSMC is listed in US (besides Taiwan), but that doesn't make it an American company.

Moreover it spells geopolitical risk - TSMC has 94% of its manufacturing done in Taiwan, a point of tension between the U.S. and China.

We must remember that this purchase was made last quarter, during the heights of hostility around Taiwan - Pelosi's visit in August, followed by China's military drills in the Straits.

While most investors shunned the risk, Buffett dove straight into it. How contrarian is that?

It might mean that Buffett doesn't believe a war would ever happen in the island and the selldown has made TSMC an attractive buy.

TSMC exhibits a typical Buffett stock. It is a clear market leader as it accounted for 54% of the global foundry market.

In terms of chip manufacturing technology, only Samsung could get close enough as it was able to mass-produce 3nm chips and heading to 1nm too. But capacity-wise, Samsung is a distance behind TSMC.

The rest of the foundries are nowhere near and it will take a long time (read years) and heavy capital expenditure to catch up, if ever. Hence, there lies TSMC's competitive advantage or moat.

But Buffett doesn't just buy a temporary moat. He wants a durable moat. TSMC's existing technology would not be able to sustain its competitive advantage forever. It has to keep investing in newer technology to stay ahead.

Innovation introduces risks and uncertainties as it cost a lot of money and may still fail. This is opposite to evergreen businesses like Coca-Cola where the recipe has not changed for a century, yet remains relevant.

Even for Apple, Berkshire's largest position, was not about innovation. Buffett bought it for the brand.

Hence, it could be the case that Buffett saw TSMC beyond its technology. TSMC is the go-to and trusted brand for any company who wants the best chips made. It is the branding, organisational know-how and the stature that are hard to replicate, rather than the technology.

The average buy price that Berkshire paid for TSMC was $75.16. The current share price is 3% lower at $72.80. But the share price jumped 6% during after hours trading following Berkshire's disclosure on this position. It will take a long time to see if Buffett get this right.
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