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charming commented on a stock · Nov 16, 2022 21:00

What are your thoughts, friends? Let's discuss in the comments section.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ The Hang Seng Index is rising more and more promising, indicating a bull market coming. Is unlimited growth possible? Will 100,000 points be the end point? [Laughing and crying emoji]. Market cheerleaders have always been abundant. The Hang Seng Index rebounded by nearly 4,000 points this month, such a large monthly rebound has rarely been seen before. In 2007, there was a two-month rebound of ten thousand points. Although it has been one of the worst-performing major financial markets globally, a deep fall followed by a dead cat bounce is normal as it has fallen behind too much. As for the reversal to a bull market, there hasn't been any improvement in the fundamentals yet. Some facelift through news may occur at year-end. Tencent's performance may not be outstanding, and stock replenishment will not stop. I am skeptical about further gains in the Hang Seng Index, and the response of derivatives differs from the spot market. The bull-bear ratio of Hang Seng Index warrants is 0.4% (24) for bulls and 99.6% (6,791) for bears, an overwhelmingly bearish scenario is rare. Yesterday, there was significant trading in Hang Seng Index period call warrants, most likely for same-day closing and not overnight holding as it would be unlikely based on yesterday's market to be major sell orders. Bearish warrants have reached a selling peak, while Hang Seng Index options are mainly for intraday institutional operations. The option premium price was higher in the middle of the month than at the beginning, no longer attractive, while period warrants are more liquid, with outstanding unclosed contracts visible. Today is Wednesday, with option premiums still at Monday's price, and settlement will be in two days. The rising Hang Seng Index corresponds to an increase in the fear index, rising with uneasy feelings, creating a stark contrast between derivatives and the spot market. It's not easy to play both Long and Short positions in the Hang Seng Index this week, as Monday and Tuesday only the latter resulted in profits. The slow transaction volume of options must have reasons behind it, making it difficult for even experienced traders to win, while beginners and conservative traders may not lose by observing from the sidelines, making less profit also means not losing. Placing Long and Short positions now may not be very rewarding. The index has high volatility, the market activity is low, which investors agree on, indicating a mature derivative market with many experienced players. The Hang Seng Index has seen a fluctuation of 1200 points this week alone, how much more room is there for an upward move? Playing both Long and Short positions is not the same as just following one direction, one needs to watch both sides. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$
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