Inflation worries persist. How should you trade inflation?
Despite decades-high inflation and a deteriorating economic outlook, U.S. retail sales posted the largest increase in eight months in October, showing that consumer demand for goods is largely holding up.
The value of total retail purchases increased by 1.3% last month, according to figures released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Retail sales increased by 0.9% if vehicles and petrol were excluded. These numbers don't account for inflation.
The numbers show that consumers are still mostly resilient, and they also imply that the economy started out well in the fourth quarter. This may complicate the argument made by a number of Federal Reserve officials calling for a slower pace of interest-rate increases in the upcoming months. However, policymakers agree that inflation is still far too high.
Retailers continue to see the mixed effects of inflation on earnings: $Target (TGT.US)$ Chairman and CEO Brian Cornell said consumers curbed their spending as anticipated around the end of October and the beginning of November. Target stock fell on Wednesday as a result of the retailer's significantly poorer third quarter than analysts had predicted and lowered expectations for full-year profits.
In the meantime, $Home Depot (HD.US)$ 's profit exceeded expectations last quarter, but was driven by higher prices rather than more transactions. Also, $Walmart (WMT.US)$ increased its full-year guidance as U.S. consumers flocked to its stores to find discounts.
Trading Inflation
According to investment management firm Man Group quants, the great inflation trade is anticipated to continue, and all indications point to pricing pressures staying strong for a long while yet. JPMorgan Asset continues to invest in highly rated short-term debt. The chief investment officer of the company has long expressed concern about sticky inflation, which some had thought would decline following the pandemic.
As we all know, amid a high inflation environment, inflation trading is generally taken into consideration. Many investors would switch their portfolios into assets that are typically more advantageous in an inflationary climate when prices are rising.
Typically, wise investors will make an effort to protect their wealth from inflation and maintain its worth. Many investors are recommended to add to or expand their exposure to Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) or I-Bonds as inflation rises. TIPS and Series I-Bonds provide investors with interest payments that rise and fall in line with inflation.
Besides, the price of gold is the most popular hedge against inflation. Allocating funds to an index fund, such as the $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ , will nearly equal investing in the price of gold.
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Ashley Howe : Thank you
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RDK79 : Better question if it’d been asked a year ago…
RDK79 : ‘… deteriorating economic outlook….’ Who is that analyst? Maybe Fox News.
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