TSLA
Tesla
-- 379.280 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 138.310 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 20.0000 PLTR
Palantir
-- 75.190 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 120.630 
Too difficult
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ What's been happening recently? The high costs have led to a significant decline in net income, with Nvidia's net income in the third quarter amounting to only 0.68 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 72%.
Some investors have calculated the valuation based on Nvidia's net income in the past four quarters and have determined that the dynamic PE ratio is 66 times, believing that there is a serious bubble.
This valuation method is completely wrong. For cyclical stocks, calculating the PE ratio during the industry downturn can appear unusually high, and this downturn is only temporary. Therefore, investors should not be overly concerned about Nvidia's declining net income.
Returning to the guidance for the fourth quarter, management expects revenue to be 6 billion US dollars, with a fluctuation range of 2%, and the predicted median is slightly lower than the market's expected 6.09 billion.
The good news is that the gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter is 63.2%, significantly higher than the past two quarters.
And at the earnings call, management believes that after the fourth quarter, the channel inventory of gaming products is expected to return to normal levels, and revenue is expected to increase sequentially.
This verifies the analysts' speculation about the peak of inventory in the third quarter. Based on Nvidia's performance in the semiconductor downturn cycle in 2018, once inventory starts to decline, the stock price is expected to bottom out: considering the possibility of a global economic recession after the Fed raises interest rates, the PC market in 2023 is currently predicted to decline by 5-10%. Therefore, after passing the darkest moment, it will still take time for the semiconductor industry to recover and Nvidia may have a difficult performance during this period.
Perhaps, Berkshire made a big move to build a position in Taiwan Semiconductor in the third quarter, maybe also thinking that the third quarter is the lowest point for semiconductors.
Getting through the darkest moment, Nvidia is showing signs of dawn! $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$
Some investors have calculated the valuation based on Nvidia's net income in the past four quarters and have determined that the dynamic PE ratio is 66 times, believing that there is a serious bubble.
This valuation method is completely wrong. For cyclical stocks, calculating the PE ratio during the industry downturn can appear unusually high, and this downturn is only temporary. Therefore, investors should not be overly concerned about Nvidia's declining net income.
Returning to the guidance for the fourth quarter, management expects revenue to be 6 billion US dollars, with a fluctuation range of 2%, and the predicted median is slightly lower than the market's expected 6.09 billion.
The good news is that the gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter is 63.2%, significantly higher than the past two quarters.
And at the earnings call, management believes that after the fourth quarter, the channel inventory of gaming products is expected to return to normal levels, and revenue is expected to increase sequentially.
This verifies the analysts' speculation about the peak of inventory in the third quarter. Based on Nvidia's performance in the semiconductor downturn cycle in 2018, once inventory starts to decline, the stock price is expected to bottom out: considering the possibility of a global economic recession after the Fed raises interest rates, the PC market in 2023 is currently predicted to decline by 5-10%. Therefore, after passing the darkest moment, it will still take time for the semiconductor industry to recover and Nvidia may have a difficult performance during this period.
Perhaps, Berkshire made a big move to build a position in Taiwan Semiconductor in the third quarter, maybe also thinking that the third quarter is the lowest point for semiconductors.
Getting through the darkest moment, Nvidia is showing signs of dawn! $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$
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Silverbat : 172?