7% interest rate? Maybe, but it doesn't affect the short-term trend
The topic of 7% terminal interest rate has been hyped up. Maybe, although I don't think the US economy can hold up to 5-6% at most. However, the problem of inflation, with only 4% interest rate, can never last long (unless the goal is to reduce inflation to 4%, then it's much easier)
The root cause of inflation is the epidemic, war, and Sino-US relations. The desire to reduce inflation is actually quite clear. China's economy can't stand it anymore. It is estimated that it will be next summer to let go of control of the epidemic. The Russian-Ukrainian war will definitely end next year (otherwise, even if it doesn't actually end, Russia will lose).
Calculated this way, there are only two points left to reduce inflation: 1. Lift sanctions against Russia and invest in developing Russian energy. 2. Improve relations with China, eliminate political risks, and promote the continued shift of manufacturing to China (especially chip production). And America can do both of these things right away. So in fact, they don't want inflation to go down; it's just the US government itself![]()
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Actually, it's because the elderly are both confused and selfish; they don't know that China and Russia are not a threat to the US (China and Russia are forced to join forces, and the East and West are forced into rivalry. This is the worst choice for America. Of course, Europe is even more miserable![]()
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To put it bluntly, inflation may be repeated again and again in the future, and the possibility of stagflation is not ruled out. In that case, it is possible to raise interest rates above 7%. But it's just a possibility; even if it happens, it's still early. The short-term trend is still likely to rise, and will continue until:
1. Interest rate hike 75 in December, putting actions and words at the same time 🦅
2. Earnings for the fourth quarter thundered on a large scale, and the winter spread outward from the field of science and technology
3. It really can't go up. For example, over 4,200 points is basically the limit
4. The November CPI PPI data storm proved that this decline was only short-lived. However, I think prices are currently stable (stable at a high level, not rising); anyway, I can't see them continuing to rise
No matter what happens, you will definitely have to reduce your position, clear your position, or even short it in reverse. But there's still a long time to go.
Today's changes in my position
1. Decrease positions qqq. After adding some positions to tqqq and combining it with qqq at a ratio of 1 to 3, the total QQQ position remains unchanged
2. Reduced position tlt, partial increase in tmf, equivalent total position unchanged
3. Add a small amount of sdow to 10%
4. A small amount of extra soxs to 10%
5. The money freed up has stolen the motherland's chau $Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares(CHAU.US$ With yinn $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF(YINN.US$ Because it is leveraged, it only uses less than 10% of small positions. I just bought it at a low position at the opening. I wish the motherland more prosperity
6. Individual stocks: The top five holdings Microsoft Google BRK AMZN DIS have been reduced by AMZN and AAPL, and the total position is less than 10%. The reason why they don't like to buy individual stocks is that they can't stand the risk of a mismatch in the earnings report and immediately plummeting by double digits after the market.
The rest of the cash is around 5%.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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razo2 : very hard mile stones to reach as geo political tensions keeps increasing. G20 what was on the table, Taiwan china. kinda speaks alot things hasn't change. Russia and Ukraine, the reason why Russia retreat is due to winter. WW 2 is the same, soldiers will die in the winter. best send back to base where they can survive to fight another day. is that simple. inflation will drop if the market crash. last time dow was holding up the market. but as demand slows down the demand for oil decreases.