When the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting come, what signals will they send? The “Chinese character” continues to rise. How do you view investment value? Why has Meituan's stock price fluctuated greatly recently?
$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(SEP4)(NQmain.US$ On November 23, the Hong Kong A market bottomed out and rebounded, and the Chinese alphabet continued to rise. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.57%, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.13%, the Chinese letterhead and state-owned enterprise reform concept stocks continued to gain strength. China Alcoa International surged 25%, CGN New Energy rose more than 15%, Internet technology stocks strengthened, and pharmaceutical stocks declined; on the A-share side, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.26%, the Shenzhen Stock Index fell 0.27%, the GEM index fell 0.14%, and the rise and decline in the pharmaceutical sector continued.
In terms of US stocks, the three major indices collectively closed higher overnight. The Dow Jones index rose 1.18%, the Nasdaq index rose 1.36%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.36%, most technology stocks rose slightly, international oil prices stopped falling four times in a row, energy stocks showed strong performance, and many Chinese securities, such as Baidu and iQiyi, released financial reports, which did not fully meet expectations, and most Chinese securities fell. November 24 (Thursday) is the US Thanksgiving holiday. After tonight's trading, the US stock market will be closed for one day, and November 25 (Friday) will be closed early.
Facing today's market, what are mooer paying attention to? And what are the operating strategies? Check it out with hot girls![]()
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Q: When the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting come, what signals will they send?
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting will be released at 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday (November 24). Most traders are betting that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December. Following recent comments from Fed officials, a 75 basis point increase in interest rates is less than 25% likely. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are about to be released. What kind of signals do you think are more likely to be released?
《Economic data have mixed expectations for monetary policy, and I expect clarification in the near future》
The economic data released last week are not consistent with the direction of monetary policy expectations. On the one hand, the New York Federal Reserve survey results showed that consumer inflation expectations rebounded in October, ending a three-month continuous downward trend in the third quarter. This is in line with the results of the University of Michigan survey. Meanwhile, the US PPI data for October greatly exceeded expectations and fell back to 8%, the lowest monthly year-on-year growth rate since July 2021. The service sector PPI fell 0.1%, the first decline since November 2020.
This once again pushes the Federal Reserve into a dilemma. The statements of Federal Reserve officials were also divided last week, and the market's expectations for the December rate hike remained stable at 50 bps, causing the long-term yield level to fluctuate only slightly last week, and the US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y.BD) fell 0.50% weekly. However, the US 2-year Treasury yield (US2Y.BD) once again regained upward momentum, rising 4.58% weekly. In terms of US bond futures options, the largest open positions in December and January options correspond to long-term yields of 4.0% and 3.6% respectively, which suggests that long-term interest rates still have upward potential before the December FOMC meeting, and the market may need to carefully consider the path of the December rate hike.
This week focuses on the November FOMC minutes announced in the early hours of Thursday morning and Powell's speech. Before the FOMC meeting in December, the market not only needs to reach a high level of agreement on the target interest rate by the end of this year, but also needs to gradually clarify its views on next year's terminal interest rate. This will depend on the results of communication between the Federal Reserve and the market during this period, as well as the October PCE, November non-agricultural sector, and November CPI data released in sequence after December.
The volatile market will continue until the next big economic data. Americans don't have much savings, so Affirm Holdings' 29% GMV for this quarter comes from “daily consumption,” up 509% from the previous year. If you buy everyday consumer goods, you can spend money... A recession will definitely happen, and it will be very soon, just wait for the unemployment rate to rise.
Also, pay attention to the minutes of the Fed's meeting this week. There really aren't any major economic data. The market will look for it on its own; maybe it's just another moment of complacency.
In terms of US stocks, the three major indices collectively closed higher overnight. The Dow Jones index rose 1.18%, the Nasdaq index rose 1.36%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.36%, most technology stocks rose slightly, international oil prices stopped falling four times in a row, energy stocks showed strong performance, and many Chinese securities, such as Baidu and iQiyi, released financial reports, which did not fully meet expectations, and most Chinese securities fell. November 24 (Thursday) is the US Thanksgiving holiday. After tonight's trading, the US stock market will be closed for one day, and November 25 (Friday) will be closed early.
Facing today's market, what are mooer paying attention to? And what are the operating strategies? Check it out with hot girls
Q: When the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting come, what signals will they send?
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting will be released at 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday (November 24). Most traders are betting that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December. Following recent comments from Fed officials, a 75 basis point increase in interest rates is less than 25% likely. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are about to be released. What kind of signals do you think are more likely to be released?
《Economic data have mixed expectations for monetary policy, and I expect clarification in the near future》
The economic data released last week are not consistent with the direction of monetary policy expectations. On the one hand, the New York Federal Reserve survey results showed that consumer inflation expectations rebounded in October, ending a three-month continuous downward trend in the third quarter. This is in line with the results of the University of Michigan survey. Meanwhile, the US PPI data for October greatly exceeded expectations and fell back to 8%, the lowest monthly year-on-year growth rate since July 2021. The service sector PPI fell 0.1%, the first decline since November 2020.
This once again pushes the Federal Reserve into a dilemma. The statements of Federal Reserve officials were also divided last week, and the market's expectations for the December rate hike remained stable at 50 bps, causing the long-term yield level to fluctuate only slightly last week, and the US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y.BD) fell 0.50% weekly. However, the US 2-year Treasury yield (US2Y.BD) once again regained upward momentum, rising 4.58% weekly. In terms of US bond futures options, the largest open positions in December and January options correspond to long-term yields of 4.0% and 3.6% respectively, which suggests that long-term interest rates still have upward potential before the December FOMC meeting, and the market may need to carefully consider the path of the December rate hike.
This week focuses on the November FOMC minutes announced in the early hours of Thursday morning and Powell's speech. Before the FOMC meeting in December, the market not only needs to reach a high level of agreement on the target interest rate by the end of this year, but also needs to gradually clarify its views on next year's terminal interest rate. This will depend on the results of communication between the Federal Reserve and the market during this period, as well as the October PCE, November non-agricultural sector, and November CPI data released in sequence after December.
The volatile market will continue until the next big economic data. Americans don't have much savings, so Affirm Holdings' 29% GMV for this quarter comes from “daily consumption,” up 509% from the previous year. If you buy everyday consumer goods, you can spend money... A recession will definitely happen, and it will be very soon, just wait for the unemployment rate to rise.
Also, pay attention to the minutes of the Fed's meeting this week. There really aren't any major economic data. The market will look for it on its own; maybe it's just another moment of complacency.
Q: How do you view the investment value of state-owned enterprises? What are the investment directions?
@满股经纶《A brief analysis of the investment value and stock selection direction of central enterprises》
In the capital market, central enterprises are mainly distributed in basic industries involving people's livelihood. In normal times, the competitiveness of central enterprises may not be as competitive as high-growth and highly creative private enterprises. However, in the context of the ongoing epidemic and economic downturn, the resilience advantages of central enterprises have been reflected. After entering 2022, when market pressure was high, the performance growth of the state-owned enterprise 100 index clearly outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Compared to the market as a whole, the performance of listed central enterprises showed countercyclical attributes, surpassing them in terms of relative performance. The speech of the Chairman of the Securities Regulatory Commission acted as a catalyst, but the advantages of central enterprises themselves as listed companies are gradually being reflected.
In September 2022, the 27th session of the Central Committee on Comprehensive and Deepening Reform deliberated and approved the “Opinions on Improving the New Nationwide System for Key Core Technologies Under the Conditions of a Socialist Market Economy”, which proposed that in terms of breakthroughs in core technology fields, national efforts should be made in terms of capital, projects, and talents. The government allocates the country's resources and forces in an integrated manner to achieve the corresponding goals and tasks. Under the national system, central enterprises are bound to become the main force for hard technology breakthroughs, and in the future, technology-based central enterprises are expected to become the main focus of financial attention.
Q: How do you interpret the big price fluctuation before Meituan's performance?
Recently, there have been large fluctuations in Meituan's stock price. Market news has been frequent, including public consultation on the draft amendments to the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, market news that Meituan is being asked to pay social security for millions of takeaways, Tencent Holdings “dividend” reduced its holdings of Meituan shares by 958 million shares, etc. How should we view the large fluctuations in Meituan's stock price before its performance? On November 25, Meituan will release its Q3 earnings report. How do coworkers interpret this?
@敖丁阿 - “Meituan is in turmoil. How will the stock price go after Q3?》
Meituan will release its third-quarter earnings report on November 25 (Friday). Just before the announcement, Meituan had evaporated HK$80 billion today. A few reasons:
1. Short-selling pressure from Tencent shareholders. Although investment banks and brokerage agencies are all optimistic about Meituan, handing out stock dividends to investors in the short term will inevitably generate pressure, not to mention under the premise that the market is not optimistic.
2. The rapid rise of Douyin's local lifestyle business has put some pressure on Meituan. Douyin's group purchases are starting super fast, and the market's valuation multiplier for local life may have to be lowered from 25-30 to around 15-20.
3. Social security rumors? A letter from Dongge's employee today instantly put pressure on Meituan. There has been a resurgence of discussions in the market about Meituan providing riders with social security.
@躺平指数《The role of protecting employment is difficult to replace, and there is no time to protect labor rights》
After DongGe issued a letter from all employees, some investors thought that there were policy signals in this, and it is expected that many employment enterprises will be affected. I think this is still a bit of overspeculation. why?
Let's first take a look at the figure mentioned in the opening article — 540,000. This refers to the total number of employees after JD merged with Debon. It shows that the priority emphasis in this letter is on the value of an enterprise's “employment protection.” In the current environment, one of the things that every family likes to talk about is job creation. After all, the original statement from the conference some time ago was that employment is the most basic of people's livelihood.
At present, it seems that companies, including JD, Meituan, Pinduoduo, etc., have played a certain role in providing jobs and generating stable income.
Meituan already has more than 1 million daily rider jobs, and spent close to 70 billion dollars on rider expenses last year.
It can be speculated that, based on the fact that these companies have an irreplaceable role in protecting employment at this stage, they will not be pressured by strong policies at this stage. This is actually a problem where the soil must be preserved before planting trees.
An economist once said that at this stage, under the pressure of short-term economic growth and labor market recovery is very high, it seems a bit extravagant to talk about new forms of employment to protect labor rights and interests.
@满股经纶《A brief analysis of the investment value and stock selection direction of central enterprises》
In the capital market, central enterprises are mainly distributed in basic industries involving people's livelihood. In normal times, the competitiveness of central enterprises may not be as competitive as high-growth and highly creative private enterprises. However, in the context of the ongoing epidemic and economic downturn, the resilience advantages of central enterprises have been reflected. After entering 2022, when market pressure was high, the performance growth of the state-owned enterprise 100 index clearly outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Compared to the market as a whole, the performance of listed central enterprises showed countercyclical attributes, surpassing them in terms of relative performance. The speech of the Chairman of the Securities Regulatory Commission acted as a catalyst, but the advantages of central enterprises themselves as listed companies are gradually being reflected.
In September 2022, the 27th session of the Central Committee on Comprehensive and Deepening Reform deliberated and approved the “Opinions on Improving the New Nationwide System for Key Core Technologies Under the Conditions of a Socialist Market Economy”, which proposed that in terms of breakthroughs in core technology fields, national efforts should be made in terms of capital, projects, and talents. The government allocates the country's resources and forces in an integrated manner to achieve the corresponding goals and tasks. Under the national system, central enterprises are bound to become the main force for hard technology breakthroughs, and in the future, technology-based central enterprises are expected to become the main focus of financial attention.
Q: How do you interpret the big price fluctuation before Meituan's performance?
Recently, there have been large fluctuations in Meituan's stock price. Market news has been frequent, including public consultation on the draft amendments to the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, market news that Meituan is being asked to pay social security for millions of takeaways, Tencent Holdings “dividend” reduced its holdings of Meituan shares by 958 million shares, etc. How should we view the large fluctuations in Meituan's stock price before its performance? On November 25, Meituan will release its Q3 earnings report. How do coworkers interpret this?
@敖丁阿 - “Meituan is in turmoil. How will the stock price go after Q3?》
Meituan will release its third-quarter earnings report on November 25 (Friday). Just before the announcement, Meituan had evaporated HK$80 billion today. A few reasons:
1. Short-selling pressure from Tencent shareholders. Although investment banks and brokerage agencies are all optimistic about Meituan, handing out stock dividends to investors in the short term will inevitably generate pressure, not to mention under the premise that the market is not optimistic.
2. The rapid rise of Douyin's local lifestyle business has put some pressure on Meituan. Douyin's group purchases are starting super fast, and the market's valuation multiplier for local life may have to be lowered from 25-30 to around 15-20.
3. Social security rumors? A letter from Dongge's employee today instantly put pressure on Meituan. There has been a resurgence of discussions in the market about Meituan providing riders with social security.
@躺平指数《The role of protecting employment is difficult to replace, and there is no time to protect labor rights》
After DongGe issued a letter from all employees, some investors thought that there were policy signals in this, and it is expected that many employment enterprises will be affected. I think this is still a bit of overspeculation. why?
Let's first take a look at the figure mentioned in the opening article — 540,000. This refers to the total number of employees after JD merged with Debon. It shows that the priority emphasis in this letter is on the value of an enterprise's “employment protection.” In the current environment, one of the things that every family likes to talk about is job creation. After all, the original statement from the conference some time ago was that employment is the most basic of people's livelihood.
At present, it seems that companies, including JD, Meituan, Pinduoduo, etc., have played a certain role in providing jobs and generating stable income.
Meituan already has more than 1 million daily rider jobs, and spent close to 70 billion dollars on rider expenses last year.
It can be speculated that, based on the fact that these companies have an irreplaceable role in protecting employment at this stage, they will not be pressured by strong policies at this stage. This is actually a problem where the soil must be preserved before planting trees.
An economist once said that at this stage, under the pressure of short-term economic growth and labor market recovery is very high, it seems a bit extravagant to talk about new forms of employment to protect labor rights and interests.
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