Help me understand how the market "thinks" in response to the Fed
I think how I think. Others think differently.
Riddle me this.
On September 21, the Fed released its new economic projections. They raised the rate an expected 0.75%, but what really shook the market was the increased terminal rate projections for 2022 - 2024 (but the long-term rate projection stayed at 2.5%). The new (increased) projections for the overnight Fed Funds rate were for 4.4% by end of 2022, and 4.6% for 2023.
The market bottoms September 30.
Then, on November 23, the "minutes" from the November meeting are released. It supports what individual Fed member have said over the last few weeks, which is a higher terminal rate than last projected, likely over 5.0% in 2023, which obviously would require a slowing of rate increases since we will be at 4.5% within a few weeks.
And the market moons and there was much rejoicing.
???????
What is the reasoning? $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
Riddle me this.
On September 21, the Fed released its new economic projections. They raised the rate an expected 0.75%, but what really shook the market was the increased terminal rate projections for 2022 - 2024 (but the long-term rate projection stayed at 2.5%). The new (increased) projections for the overnight Fed Funds rate were for 4.4% by end of 2022, and 4.6% for 2023.
The market bottoms September 30.
Then, on November 23, the "minutes" from the November meeting are released. It supports what individual Fed member have said over the last few weeks, which is a higher terminal rate than last projected, likely over 5.0% in 2023, which obviously would require a slowing of rate increases since we will be at 4.5% within a few weeks.
And the market moons and there was much rejoicing.
???????
What is the reasoning? $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
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456632345 : Markets are irrational and need no reason
elyaloy 456632345 : That's right!
熊市幸存者哈 elyaloy : That's what the capital market is like. How's the deal going with Mooyou recently?