2022 returns surpass Buffett, Howard Max Q3 Holdings Digest

Two of the global investment giants with a management volume of over $3.5 billion achieved positive returns in 2022, with Howard Marks leading the way with a yield of 26.71%.

With the recent disclosure of 13F, Howard Marx's latest investment actions have also surfaced.

Oak Capital Management is headquartered in Los Angeles. Oak Capital Management is a hedge fund with 310 clients, and the discretionary assets (AUM) under management are $147,452,182,548 (ADV Form of November 2, 2022). Their recently reported 13F documents for the third quarter of 2022 include $9,108,674,000 in escrow of 13F securities and a concentration of 52.56% of the top 10 holdings.

After graduating from Wharton School, Howard Max joined Citibank in 1968 and began studying investing. He studied under Professor Siegel and follows the “Beautiful 50” investment law, which means investing in the 50 best and fastest growing companies in the US at any cost.

From 1970 to 1972, many Beautiful 50 stocks had price-earnings ratios of over 80 times. Then, from 1973 to 1974, the shares of America 50 rapidly plummeted. Over the next few years, the minimum valuation fell to single digits, and the stock price fell 60% to 80%.

Nifty-50 taught Howard Max, who was just starting his career, a vivid investment lesson that made him think: “Investing isn't about what you buy; it's about what you pay. Investing isn't about buying something good, it's buying it at the right price.” Howard made a bold point: if you want to make real money in the investment market, you can't follow market trends. It is wrong for newbies to blindly “follow suit.” Can we win the market only by adhering to “reverse e-investing”?

Howard's latest insight: Staying still is the right strategy
The $NASDAQ (.IXIC) $ index began to decline after hitting 16212.23 points in November last year, and rebounded after hitting a new low of 10,888.83 points on October 12, 2022. What is the trend of the market? What I'm most concerned about is where the US stock market is now.

Max recently had a conversation with Sara, fund manager at the British investment agency SJP, to discuss the direction of US stocks. Howard made it clear that the US stock market is currently in the middle of the cycle. Stock prices are reasonable, and keeping them constant is the right strategy. Howard put it bluntly:

“In the first half of 2021, many assets such as technology stocks, green energy stocks, and cryptocurrencies were excessively speculated by the market. People loved those assets, but now they don't seem to like anything. Currently, we are not seeing excessive speculation, and the market is in a reasonable range. The market is no longer optimistic, but it is not yet time to be pessimistic.”
Howard notes that in his 53-year career, the market has only entered the “greedy hour” five times, but usually not in a greedy trend, but in the middle. The United States experienced 17 recessions, two during the World War, a Great Depression, several small-scale wars, and several geopolitical conflicts.

Over the past 102 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an annualized yield of more than 10%. Therefore, in the face of the “most uncertain” environment, ups and downs occur from time to time, the economy will always usher in an upward trend, the company will always be profitable, and the market will always rise. If you stick to long-term investments, you'll benefit from these upward trends.

Don't try to buy or sell and adjust your goals frequently. Doing so will only complicate your portfolio. Since events in the next 6 and 12 months may not affect the next 10-30 years, I also encourage you to focus on work and family rather than worrying about whether the next 12 months will experience a recession.