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A Summary of Tesla's Recent Situation and Q4 Sales Forecast
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures(MAR5) (MNQmain.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Recently, some information about Tesla (TSLA) has been summarized, mainly referring to Troy Teslike and some information from the USA.
From the current data:
1) Q4 Tesla's production forecast is 466,165 units, with an estimated annual production of 1.396 million units in 2022.
2) Q4 Tesla's delivery forecast is 0.42 million, mainly distributed in the USA and Canada with 0.165 million, China with 0.12 million, Europe with 0.101 million, and other regions with 0.033 million.
From the current data:
1) Q4 Tesla's production forecast is 466,165 units, with an estimated annual production of 1.396 million units in 2022.
2) Q4 Tesla's delivery forecast is 0.42 million, mainly distributed in the USA and Canada with 0.165 million, China with 0.12 million, Europe with 0.101 million, and other regions with 0.033 million.
3) Looking at the order backlog, there are currently 0.285 million globally. In China, the estimate at the end of October was 0.032 million (after the price reduction, the order volume increased).
From the perspective of battery demand allocation.
1) This year, LFP supply from China has alleviated the demand in the USA, but next, IRA will change the supply in the US market.
2) Next year, 4680 and 2170 batteries will be the main supply in the US market.
From Tesla's performance this year, we see that focusing on developing autonomous driving technology has not directly resulted in changes in orders. This order backlog is rapidly depleting in a highly competitive market. The biggest problem in China is the fluctuation in Model 3 data.
According to Troy's calculations, Tesla's global order backlog on October 31st was 0.285 million vehicles, lower than the 0.299 million vehicles on September 30th. The decrease mainly occurred in the US, where deliveries are proceeding at full speed.
1) This year, LFP supply from China has alleviated the demand in the USA, but next, IRA will change the supply in the US market.
2) Next year, 4680 and 2170 batteries will be the main supply in the US market.
From Tesla's performance this year, we see that focusing on developing autonomous driving technology has not directly resulted in changes in orders. This order backlog is rapidly depleting in a highly competitive market. The biggest problem in China is the fluctuation in Model 3 data.
According to Troy's calculations, Tesla's global order backlog on October 31st was 0.285 million vehicles, lower than the 0.299 million vehicles on September 30th. The decrease mainly occurred in the US, where deliveries are proceeding at full speed.
In my understanding, in the current state, the goal is to boost deliveries in December and quickly fulfill orders in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. This task is very challenging. Conventional means like insurance and price reductions may not be effective, so there might be discussions about special discounts. We are looking forward to changes in the final price.
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