2022.11.25 (Friday) NQ100 replay and (next week) prediction
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Summary:
Yesterday's prediction: The probability of success on Friday is high: the pressure level is 11963 points, the high pressure level is 12118.75 points on the 15th, the support level averaged 11,791 points on the 5th, and the strong support level was 11526 points on the 22nd.
Predictive evaluation: 1. Wrong direction. 2. Points: Comparatively accurate: the predicted pressure level is 120,11963 points -- the actual highest is 1,1933 points; the predicted support level is an average of 11791 points over 5 days -- the actual low is 11766.25 points.
1. NQ100 index review (I used small NASDAQ stock index data)
Yesterday's prediction: The probability of success on Friday is high: the pressure level is 11963 points, the high pressure level is 12118.75 points on the 15th, the support level averaged 11,791 points on the 5th, and the strong support level was 11526 points on the 22nd.
Predictive evaluation: 1. Wrong direction. 2. Points: Comparatively accurate: the predicted pressure level is 120,11963 points -- the actual highest is 1,1933 points; the predicted support level is an average of 11791 points over 5 days -- the actual low is 11766.25 points.
1. NQ100 index review (I used small NASDAQ stock index data)
Time-sharing trend: After opening at 18:00 EST on November 24, NQ100 futures continued to trade sideways. The 60-minute moving average leveled off and consolidated, and a slight decline began after 1:00 p.m. on November 25. Afterwards, it continued all the way down along the 60-minute level 5 o'clock EMA.
After the opening of the US stock market at 9:30, it continued to decline and ended trading at 11784.70 points, -0.66%. Shrink and reduce the small negative line. Shouyang Doji this week, with a weekly increase of +0.72. After Thanksgiving, people haven't recovered. The news is lackluster. Coupled with Zhou Wei, trading was lackluster, and the index fell freely.
II. Yesterday's predictions and evaluations
Trend prediction: It reached a high of 1,1933 on the 24th, and declined slightly due to 120 average (11960). Currently, it oscillates below 120 average in a 60-minute cycle. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting spoke in pigeon style. The yield on US 10-year treasury bonds and Vix all rebounded slightly before the market, but they were all bearish trends, indicating that the market's basic sentiment is stable. The news was relatively quiet. Technology deviated from the bottom of the underwater gold fork last week and supported the upward expansion of the market. Prevent Friday from getting dark. The trend was still strong on Wednesday. The US stock market was closed before the 24th and 25th, and stock index futures were weak. I personally think it is an illusion. The probability of success on Friday is high: the pressure level is 120 points at 11963 points, the high pressure level is 12118.75 points on the 15th, the support level averaged 11,791 points on the 5th, and the strong support level was a low of 1,1526 points on the 22nd.
Predictive Assessment: Lower than expected. The prediction direction is wrong, but the points are quite accurate: the predicted pressure level is 11963 points -- the actual high is 1,1933 points; the predicted support level is an average of 11791 points for 5 days -- the actual low is 11766.25 points.
III. Comprehensive analysis of the NQ100 Index
(1) External environment: No major changes.
1. Short-term: On December 5, 2022, China downgraded 0.25 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average reserve ratio of financial institutions was approximately 7.8%.
The ECB basically replicates the Federal Reserve: slowing down but not stopping rate hikes.
About 100 million poultry have been culled, Europe and the US are facing the worst bird flu crisis in history
2. Long-term: Factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the European energy crisis, interest rate hike cycles, high oil price fluctuations (recent continuous downturn), and repeated epidemics constrain the general market.
(2) Fundamentals: No major changes.
1. Short-term: According to data from the US Department of Commerce on the 16th, retail sales in the US rose 1.3% month-on-month in October, exceeding market expectations of 1%. The previous value was 0%. At 8:30 on the 15th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released better-than-expected PPI data.
2. Long-term: The impact of long-term factors on the decline in the stock market is weakening. Factors such as high CPI but an inflection point, the interest rate hike cycle, the intensification of competition from high-tech barriers, pressure on consumption, and the rise of Oriental powers affect the stock market in the medium to long term. The world's political and economic landscape is quietly undergoing dramatic changes, shifting from one pole to two leaders.
(3) Policy aspects:
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting on November 23 spoke out.
(4) Technical aspects:
1. EMA: Short-term: 5-day EMA for 4 days at closing.
Medium- to long-term: The stock index was supported at the 55-month line. The 5-week line is a 10-week gold fork, and the May line is flat.
2. MACD: Short-term: 0 axis on the daily MACD (sign of strengthening). The daily line and weekly gold fork resonance.
Long-term: The dead ends on the monthly line and the quarterly line resonate, and the bottom of the weekly line deviates from the underwater gold fork (important, marks the development of the weekly level market).
3. Cycle and magnitude of rise and fall:
Rise: The 17th day of the rebound since November 4, this week is currently +0.72%.
Decline: Duration and rate of decline: No change. In 11 months since the record high, the biggest decline (16767.5-10484.75) was 6282.75 points, or 37.46%. This wave declined by 3256 or 23.69% (13740.75—10484.75).
4. Waves: Short-term: Weekly level rebounds and 5 waves rising.
Long-term: A rebound wave after the end of 5 waves of weekly decline.
(5) Important reference data
1. The US 10-year Treasury yield index: short-term: broke through the downward trend and closed at 3.709 on the 25th, +0.05%. Long-term: At a high level.
2. US dollar index: short-term: breaking trend, closing 106.7 points on the 25th, +0.20%. Long-term: In a strong position.
3. US dollar offshore RMB exchange rate: Short-term: Continued to rebound in the last two weeks, closing at 7.1937 on the 25th, +0.34%, and standing at the 20 EMA (be wary).
Long-term: In a strong position.
4: WTI crude oil futures. Short-term: Daily bearish trend, closing 76.55 points on the 25th, -1.78%. Long-term: Located in a high position.
5. Vix Index: Weak sideways trend. Closed 22.60 points on the 25th, +0.89%. In the current situation, I personally think that intraday changes will be closely watched every few days. Market sentiment remains stable and weakening continues.
6. Star stock performance: Apple -1.96%, Microsoft -0.04%, Google -1.02%, Amazon -0.76, Meta -0.74%, Tesla -0.19%, Nvidia -1.51%.
4. Next week's overall trend and next Monday's trend forecast
Forecast of next week's overall trend: external environment: basically stable; fundamentals: economic data is improving; policy: minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting speak in pigeon style; important reference data: short trend in US 10-year treasury yields, Vix bears; news is relatively calm; technical side: the weekly bottom deviates from the underwater gold fork, supporting the upward expansion of the market. In summary, I personally think the probability of succeeding next week is high: the pressure level is 11960 points on the average, the high pressure level is 12118.75 points on the 15th, the support level is 1,1526 points on the 22nd, and the strong support level is 11,478 points on the 20th.
Next Monday: The pressure level is high of 11933 on the 24th, the high pressure level is 11960 points on the 120th average; the support level is low of 11526 points on the 22nd.
(The support level or pressure level is a reference for actual operation. The market is always right. All we can do is follow. After breaking through the support level or pressure level, we need to evaluate whether the breakthrough is real or false, and change our views and adjust the operation strategy in a timely manner)
The current rebound, the Dow index was the strongest, followed by S&P, and the NASDAQ was the weakest. (Risk: 1. News impact, 2. Economic data, 3. Black Thursday and Friday, 4. Short-term rebound too high and back on the moving average)
Solemnly state:
1. Personal opinions are for reference only $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
After the opening of the US stock market at 9:30, it continued to decline and ended trading at 11784.70 points, -0.66%. Shrink and reduce the small negative line. Shouyang Doji this week, with a weekly increase of +0.72. After Thanksgiving, people haven't recovered. The news is lackluster. Coupled with Zhou Wei, trading was lackluster, and the index fell freely.
II. Yesterday's predictions and evaluations
Trend prediction: It reached a high of 1,1933 on the 24th, and declined slightly due to 120 average (11960). Currently, it oscillates below 120 average in a 60-minute cycle. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting spoke in pigeon style. The yield on US 10-year treasury bonds and Vix all rebounded slightly before the market, but they were all bearish trends, indicating that the market's basic sentiment is stable. The news was relatively quiet. Technology deviated from the bottom of the underwater gold fork last week and supported the upward expansion of the market. Prevent Friday from getting dark. The trend was still strong on Wednesday. The US stock market was closed before the 24th and 25th, and stock index futures were weak. I personally think it is an illusion. The probability of success on Friday is high: the pressure level is 120 points at 11963 points, the high pressure level is 12118.75 points on the 15th, the support level averaged 11,791 points on the 5th, and the strong support level was a low of 1,1526 points on the 22nd.
Predictive Assessment: Lower than expected. The prediction direction is wrong, but the points are quite accurate: the predicted pressure level is 11963 points -- the actual high is 1,1933 points; the predicted support level is an average of 11791 points for 5 days -- the actual low is 11766.25 points.
III. Comprehensive analysis of the NQ100 Index
(1) External environment: No major changes.
1. Short-term: On December 5, 2022, China downgraded 0.25 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average reserve ratio of financial institutions was approximately 7.8%.
The ECB basically replicates the Federal Reserve: slowing down but not stopping rate hikes.
About 100 million poultry have been culled, Europe and the US are facing the worst bird flu crisis in history
2. Long-term: Factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the European energy crisis, interest rate hike cycles, high oil price fluctuations (recent continuous downturn), and repeated epidemics constrain the general market.
(2) Fundamentals: No major changes.
1. Short-term: According to data from the US Department of Commerce on the 16th, retail sales in the US rose 1.3% month-on-month in October, exceeding market expectations of 1%. The previous value was 0%. At 8:30 on the 15th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released better-than-expected PPI data.
2. Long-term: The impact of long-term factors on the decline in the stock market is weakening. Factors such as high CPI but an inflection point, the interest rate hike cycle, the intensification of competition from high-tech barriers, pressure on consumption, and the rise of Oriental powers affect the stock market in the medium to long term. The world's political and economic landscape is quietly undergoing dramatic changes, shifting from one pole to two leaders.
(3) Policy aspects:
The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting on November 23 spoke out.
(4) Technical aspects:
1. EMA: Short-term: 5-day EMA for 4 days at closing.
Medium- to long-term: The stock index was supported at the 55-month line. The 5-week line is a 10-week gold fork, and the May line is flat.
2. MACD: Short-term: 0 axis on the daily MACD (sign of strengthening). The daily line and weekly gold fork resonance.
Long-term: The dead ends on the monthly line and the quarterly line resonate, and the bottom of the weekly line deviates from the underwater gold fork (important, marks the development of the weekly level market).
3. Cycle and magnitude of rise and fall:
Rise: The 17th day of the rebound since November 4, this week is currently +0.72%.
Decline: Duration and rate of decline: No change. In 11 months since the record high, the biggest decline (16767.5-10484.75) was 6282.75 points, or 37.46%. This wave declined by 3256 or 23.69% (13740.75—10484.75).
4. Waves: Short-term: Weekly level rebounds and 5 waves rising.
Long-term: A rebound wave after the end of 5 waves of weekly decline.
(5) Important reference data
1. The US 10-year Treasury yield index: short-term: broke through the downward trend and closed at 3.709 on the 25th, +0.05%. Long-term: At a high level.
2. US dollar index: short-term: breaking trend, closing 106.7 points on the 25th, +0.20%. Long-term: In a strong position.
3. US dollar offshore RMB exchange rate: Short-term: Continued to rebound in the last two weeks, closing at 7.1937 on the 25th, +0.34%, and standing at the 20 EMA (be wary).
Long-term: In a strong position.
4: WTI crude oil futures. Short-term: Daily bearish trend, closing 76.55 points on the 25th, -1.78%. Long-term: Located in a high position.
5. Vix Index: Weak sideways trend. Closed 22.60 points on the 25th, +0.89%. In the current situation, I personally think that intraday changes will be closely watched every few days. Market sentiment remains stable and weakening continues.
6. Star stock performance: Apple -1.96%, Microsoft -0.04%, Google -1.02%, Amazon -0.76, Meta -0.74%, Tesla -0.19%, Nvidia -1.51%.
4. Next week's overall trend and next Monday's trend forecast
Forecast of next week's overall trend: external environment: basically stable; fundamentals: economic data is improving; policy: minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting speak in pigeon style; important reference data: short trend in US 10-year treasury yields, Vix bears; news is relatively calm; technical side: the weekly bottom deviates from the underwater gold fork, supporting the upward expansion of the market. In summary, I personally think the probability of succeeding next week is high: the pressure level is 11960 points on the average, the high pressure level is 12118.75 points on the 15th, the support level is 1,1526 points on the 22nd, and the strong support level is 11,478 points on the 20th.
Next Monday: The pressure level is high of 11933 on the 24th, the high pressure level is 11960 points on the 120th average; the support level is low of 11526 points on the 22nd.
(The support level or pressure level is a reference for actual operation. The market is always right. All we can do is follow. After breaking through the support level or pressure level, we need to evaluate whether the breakthrough is real or false, and change our views and adjust the operation strategy in a timely manner)
The current rebound, the Dow index was the strongest, followed by S&P, and the NASDAQ was the weakest. (Risk: 1. News impact, 2. Economic data, 3. Black Thursday and Friday, 4. Short-term rebound too high and back on the moving average)
Solemnly state:
1. Personal opinions are for reference only $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
