The rebound of TLT is probably almost over.
In the previous period, long-term interest rates continued to decline, mainly betting on inflation slowing down, economic recession, and the Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates soon. However, the crazy sales of Black Friday indicate that economic recession will not come soon. After all, during the epidemic, the U.S. government printed a lot of money, and almost every family received thousands of dollars in free money. In addition, with the significant wage increase in 2021, many Americans still have extra money on hand.
Since recession is not likely to come easily, it will be difficult for inflation to decrease, so Mr. Powell must continue to raise interest rates and maintain high rates. Betting on rate cuts is just a flash in the pan, and the probability of U.S. bond rates rising is high. If short-term rates exceed 5%, long-term rates will also need to rise significantly. After all, the current rate inversion is already very high. The rise of TLT can only be treated as a bear market rebound. Unless a real recession happens, you can bottom fish then.
Let's complain a little about A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. It seems that the national team has come to the rescue to stabilize the market sentiment. I actually inadvertently caught the bottom.![]()
Unfortunately, with less than 5% position, a two to three times leveraged ETF, it's considered making back some losses. This morning, the momentum looked strong, so I decisively added 3% position at the opening. Let's see how much it can rise. $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$ $Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (CHAU.US)$
There is a major hidden danger in the domestic economy, which is real estate. The median price of a house in the USA is approximately 0.4 million USD. Calculating based on living in a house for 30 years, property tax and loan interest combined is about twice the house price. Assuming that property appreciation and maintenance costs offset each other, the total housing expenses for a family in 30 years are about 1.2 million USD. The median household income in the USA is roughly 80,000 USD, assuming an annual wage growth of 2-3% and an income tax rate of 15%. In this calculation, 1.2 million USD is roughly 12 years of income. The remaining money is for spending. With strong consumption, the economy has vitality.
However, in China, few families can afford to buy a house with 12 years of income.![]()
All the money is eaten up by property, so how can one continue to consume?![]()
In fact, renting in China is very suitable, but unfortunately the legal system is not perfect, and there is no equal rights between renting and owning. Moreover, property and marriage are inseparably linked.![]()
In the USA, where you rent a property will determine the school district for your children. Other benefits can also be enjoyed. This is worth learning from.
To get back on track, invest in China, trade in waves. It seems that the A-share market has never had a major bull market, always fluctuating in waves, often returning to 3000 points; so, be careful with profit-taking and stop-loss.
In the USA, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned a target interest rate of 5-7%. This should be considered as the upper limit. Tomorrow, it is highly likely that Powell will also take a more hawkish stance; however, the extent of hawkishness remains uncertain. I reduced my holdings in TLT and QQQ today, converting my position into leveraged ETFs, which is approximately:
10% in equities, mainly in microsoft, google, amazon, and berkshire hathaway.
After a sharp rise, nearly 10% yinn chau.
I've cashed out a lot and am waiting for the right opportunity to act.
The next short-selling target may be energy. I'm keeping an eye on it. $Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (ERY.US)$ I'm not sure if there's an opportunity, but this thing shouldn't be heavily invested in. Energy is too unpredictable. Maybe it's better to short the Dow Jones instead.![]()
And there's logging. $Tradr 2X Short Innovation Daily ETF (SARK.US)$ I forgot to buy it before, and it's not a good time to chase after it now.![]()
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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高贵的阿德莱德 OP : Chasing ups and downs is actually fine, but you have to do it as soon as possible. If you find any signs, you have to go after them quickly. Once everyone on Earth sees it, there's no need to follow up![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
All in everyday : Watch Powell perform tonight![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
pioneering Lemur_450 : Beginner's advice: I've been taking my Sdow for 3 weeks, is it losing a lot when I hold it for a long time?
高贵的阿德莱德 OP pioneering Lemur_450 : There must be one. Look for the Dow at this point a few months ago, and compare the prices of UDOW, SDOW then, and today. This kind of leveraged ETF is to speculate on one band. If you take it for at most one or two months, you have to sell it
pioneering Lemur_450 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : OK, thank you so much! Since increasing leverage is a bit stressful, your explanation gave me a range concept of holding time!