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Crude futures settled lower on Fri despite China easing some COVID-19 on signs that the gain in oil prices this week may well convince OPEC+ to maintain its production levels rather than cutting further when it meets this weekend.
Brent crude for Feb settled 1.5% down at USD85.57 on Fri and up 2% for the week . WTI crude for Jan delivery settled down 1.5% at USD79.98 on the day and up 5% for the week.
Aside from OPEC+ uncertainty, also weighing on crude prices was news that EU had agreed to a price cap of USD60 on Russian oil exports to punish Moscow over its war against Ukraine.
Crude traders had initially feared that EU countries might go for a much smaller limit of <= USD50 that could sufficiently anger Putin and prompt him to carry out his threat of slashing Russian oil production or exports to punish Europe instead over the move. But by moving up the cap, Europe may avert any Russian retaliation - keeping Moscow's oil supplies to the region flowing and crude prices lower.
If OPEC+ announces nothing new on production but reaffirms its commitment to keep prices supported, "next week will be massive for oil price volatility", said Ed Moya, analyst at OANDA.
If the alliance leaves production for Jan onwards unchanged, then oil bulls will be counting more on China - which has been sending mixed signals on demand due to the lockdowns it had imposed on some of its biggest cities after a record surge in new coronavirus infections this year.
The rebound in the dollar from 31/2 month lows was another factor that weakened oil and most other commodities on Friday. The greenback rose after data showed the U.S. added 263,000 jobs in Nov - the smallest since Feb 2021 but still more than 30% above market forecasts. The strong jobs number could make the Fed rethink its plan to impose smaller rate hikes hereon to curb inflation when the central bank holds its monthly policy meeting on Dec. 14.
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