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高贵的阿德莱德 commented on a stock · Dec 5, 2022 01:20

Let's talk about TLT

Before Bao Shenxian's speech, I took profit from all the TLTs and TMFs I had on hand. However, it immediately skyrocketed over the next two daysActually, this kind of thing is normal. Without God's perspective, how would anyone know that Lao Bao is this time like this. He is actually not good in the long run, and he is still trying to find some kind of soft landing. This can easily cause inflation to become stubborn. But that's not something we can worry about; adapt at random. As soon as I watched the market at the time, it immediately caught up $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF(TQQQ.US)$ We continue to be bullish, awaiting CPI data and the December interest rate hike bitmap.
In the last round, in June-July, TLT had a good rebound. At that time, 30-year US Treasury yields were at the top of their shoulders, and the 20-day EMA had broken through the 60-day EMA, starting a good downward wave. On August 2, the 120-day average was briefly touched, then the upward trend began. This time, it was an m-shaped top, and then a fall led to a wave of TLT rebounding. Over the past two days, the 30-year US debt hit the 120 EMA again. I wonder if this will cause TLT to decline again later and reach a new low? We'll wait and see.
Currently, the US service industry is still facing a serious shortage of labor. Supermarkets, fast food, hotels, etc., are difficult to recruit people. Mainly images of the pandemic. Many people have retired for various reasons (just as the baby boomers have reached retirement age), as well as the sequelae of COVID-19 and the effects of the decline in immigration during the Trump era. The shortage of labor is difficult to fill in a short period of time, so it only suppresses demand.
Technology and real estate have expanded too much before, and this time they are bearing the brunt of it. As the saying goes, the higher you fly, the harder you fall. But the problem is, for example, no matter how Meta lays off employees, it will be difficult to solve the shortage of staff at McDonald's near MetaHowever, the price of a McDonald's burger is more representative of inflation. Until 2019, the Le Chicken Burger was only sold for 1 US dollar. Currently, the price is over 2 US dollars. Although it's not expensive, it has doubled If labor shortages are not addressed, how can inflation peak?
Recently, it has always been said that inflation has peaked and declined. In my opinion, it's possible, but I can't come to a conclusion so quickly. We know that on the technical side, we usually see the M top, or the top of the head and shoulder, and that is the top. Will the high point of inflation in September be just one shoulder, and will there be a head and another shoulder after that?
The US side has been raising interest rates, and China needs to release water to stimulate the economy due to economic pressure. If China releases water, it will certainly benefit large A-shares, but domestic inflation may be reported. There is always a smell of intrigue.
However, the rebound in A-shares and H-shares is really good. I've added a warehouse $Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares(CHAU.US)$ $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF(YINN.US)$ We will continue to be bullish in the short term, but we may still have to treat it as a rebound. If there is a peaking pattern, I will still reduce my position.
$ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 ETF(SDOW.US)$ I will continue to hold it, just protect it
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
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高贵的阿德莱德
本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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