Fail fast, fail often. Applying this Lean startup mentality in the stock market
When talking about failure, I think the best place to learn from is in the startup scene. It is said that 95% of all startup fails. To reduce the chances of failure, a new paradigm was born and it is called the Lean startup methodology. In this paradigm, failure is embraced instead of shun away, because the more we fail, and the faster we fail, the higher our chance of success. Counterintuitive isn't it?
The Lean startup mentality is all about learning as fast and as cheaply as possible, so that we can build the right business before our money runs out. Yes, once we are out of cash, the business goes bankrupts. In learning we are bound to fail. Do you remember the days in school when we all have a big red cross on our answer? It is OK so long we learn from it. The key being learning from it.
So what a lean startup does is that when we just started and do not know anything, we try to use the least amount of money to build our product and test it. It can even be a drawing on a piece of paper. When we learn more and more, and understand the market better, we spend more and more money to build more realistic product as it has more chance of success.
So I think we can learn a bit or two from the Lean startup mentality.
Firstly, when we are new, don't go all in.
This is because we have the highest chance of failure. If we fail, that's it. Which is why, I do not just go all in, in 1 stocks. I use a portfolio approach and have stocks, bonds, ETFs, options and cash in Singapore, US and China market. This way, if I missed out crucial information in my analysis, I won't go bankrupt.
This is because we have the highest chance of failure. If we fail, that's it. Which is why, I do not just go all in, in 1 stocks. I use a portfolio approach and have stocks, bonds, ETFs, options and cash in Singapore, US and China market. This way, if I missed out crucial information in my analysis, I won't go bankrupt.
This is also why Warren Buffett advocate for buying an Market index fund like $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ instead of picking stocks.
However, I choose to pick stocks, bonds, and even used options on top of using ETF and that accelerate my learning. Because I use a portfolio approach, I have many many position which gives me many many chance of failing and learning. Every position size is kept small, and the riskier it is the smaller the position gets.
Secondly, journal
On top of earning money, I also have goal of learning. Thus, journaling is very important. This allows me to look back and reflect what had I been thinking about, and what had I done wrong or right. We human have pathetic memories, so don't trust our brain to remember stuff, journal it instead. I mean can you even recall what you had for lunch last Tuesday?
On top of earning money, I also have goal of learning. Thus, journaling is very important. This allows me to look back and reflect what had I been thinking about, and what had I done wrong or right. We human have pathetic memories, so don't trust our brain to remember stuff, journal it instead. I mean can you even recall what you had for lunch last Tuesday?
So I do write chain journal post on positions I take in moo moo, so that I can look back at how bad I f**ked up
$Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY.US)$ chain journal: Milking theta on BBBY continues, BBBY to the moon
$Grab Holdings (GRAB.US)$ chain journal: 41.25% ROI or getting GRAB shares at $2.35, sounds like a win win
I also use Paperfolio to track my hypothesis and rationale on certain stocks like $Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
$Grab Holdings (GRAB.US)$ chain journal: 41.25% ROI or getting GRAB shares at $2.35, sounds like a win win
I also use Paperfolio to track my hypothesis and rationale on certain stocks like $Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
Lastly, reflect, learn and adjust.
The last step, is to look back at the journal, reflect on it and adjust our behaviour.
The last step, is to look back at the journal, reflect on it and adjust our behaviour.
For example, in the $Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY.US)$ saga, I had blindly placed my trust in the apes and tried to milk theta and IV% of PUT options. I stuck around for too long and now I'm still stuck trying to digging myself out of this huge loss.
Lesson learnt: Apes together strong only when prices goes up So next time if there is a meme stock rally, ride it up and cut it quickly when there are signs of trouble. After this incident, I also have reduce my position size when trying to milk theta on risky stocks.
The lesson learn then came in handy a few months later when opportunities came with $Tricida (TCDA.US)$. IV% hit 1000% and the premiums are juicy... As you can see, I had reduce the position sizing greatly. And then...
I got greedy, and continued taking risk in this stock. The stock price crash 94% in a second, ouch that hurts. But thankfully, I only take a very small position learning from my previous mistake and didn't lose that much.
Lesson learnt: Don't be greedy.
Hope that this reflection and strategies will be of help to you in your in investing journey invest safe!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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steady Pom pipi : Great sharing
doctorpot1 OP steady Pom pipi : thank you if it helps 1 person out there, it is worth the effort
SANDRO 善子 :