Dr. Lan: Another stimulus will support the Hong Kong equity/China ADR wave for a longer period
Big international banks began to act one by one, shouting to buy/long China. The Hong Kong stock market has recently surged, and so has the renminbi.
When the market is good, everyone is happy, but the happier you are, the more likely things are to happen.
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US)$ $Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ.US)$ $iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH.US)$ $iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI.US)$ $iShares MSCI BIC ETF (BKF.US)$ $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US)$ $Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ.US)$ $iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH.US)$ $iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI.US)$ $iShares MSCI BIC ETF (BKF.US)$ $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$
Data in the trading view
So the core question is: How long will this wave of Hong Kong equities/Chinese American depository certificates last?
Before answering this question, I think it is necessary to consider the following two questions, which one is more important to investment behavior:
A: Understand the current state of the market;
B: Predict what state the market will be in;
People who invest in stocks prefer to be forward-looking, so B is that predicting the market is more important in investing.
Theoretically, the same is true; after all, stock prices are a discount on future cash flow. But if you do a backtest, you'll find that the money you lose the most is often on the left. The core reason is that you don't understand the current state of the market. Buying when you shouldn't have bottomed out and always looking forward to some good news is an easy mistake for institutions and individuals alike.
Seizing the timing is a very difficult thing, and to improve the level of seizing timing, the core is to understand the current state of the market.
Instead of looking ahead every day, it's better to understand the current situation. Don't want to copy at the bottom, as long as you're on the right trend when buying at the bottom. So I personally think A is much more important than B.
So what is the current state of Dragon China?
In the second waveThe seller that started shouting that they wanted to turn around was an international investment bank. Now that they have begun to act, it is estimated that their shouting will get louder and louder.
In the second waveThe seller that started shouting that they wanted to turn around was an international investment bank. Now that they have begun to act, it is estimated that their shouting will get louder and louder.
However, it will take time for international buyers to enter, so the voices of international investment banks will be getting louder and louder. Precisely because domestic buyers are slowly changing their mentality, this market will continue to gain momentum.
Some people boldly prophesy the ark $ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$ The fund will also gradually expand the proportion of Chinese concept stocks.
The 10th IRD Seller WaveChinese brokerage firms have yet to start calling for a shift, but they will follow suit.
The Chinese stock market in Hong Kong soared, marking its best month since 2003. The Hang Seng China Index rose 29% for a month in a row due to optimism about reopening the market.
Don't forget, there's one more advantage.
Over the next period of time, I can clearly think of a major benefit that the market may have forgotten, namely the audit issue of ADR in China.
Over the next period of time, I can clearly think of a major benefit that the market may have forgotten, namely the audit issue of ADR in China.
In PCAOB's public statement on August 26 this year, it was clearly stated that PCAOB will re-evaluate its views on China's audit issues at the end of this year.
In other words, if this wave of gains continues until this decision is made, then it's not a big problem.After the PCAOB makes a decision (99% chance the audit is no longer an issue, then the SEC announces that Chinese concept stocks will be removed from the delisting list), foreign capital markets may re-examine Chinese concept stocks and put Chinese concept stocks that need to be reconsidered into the investment portfolio.
Subsequent gains may come from domestic policy support, but support after March is more likely.
In summary, sellers will continue to provide stimulants during this time, and there will also be substantial benefits (PCAOB). Furthermore, investors' mentality and perceptions change relatively slowly (for example, Ackman may short China), so there will be no problems with the market until the end of the year.
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Norton Symantec : Hi, where i can see this chart? available in investing apps?