阿姚朋友 wrote a post · Dec 10, 2022 17:16

Dr. Blue: Another stimulating factor that will support Hong Kong stocks / Chinese ADR waves longer

International banks are starting to act one after another, shouting to buy / long China. The Hong Kong stock market has recently surged, and so has the Renminbi.

When the market is good, everyone is happy, but the happier you are, the more likely accidents will happen.
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US)$ $Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ.US)$ $iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH.US)$ $iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI.US)$ $iShares MSCI BIC ETF (BKF.US)$ $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$

Dr. Blue: Another stimulating factor that will support Hong Kong stocks / Chinese ADR waves longer

Data in the trading view

So the core question is: how long can this wave of Hong Kong stocks / Chinese US depositary receipts last?

Before answering this question, I think it is necessary to consider the following two questions, which one is more important for investment behavior:

Answer: understand the current market situation;

B: What state do you predict the market will be in?

Investors who invest in stocks prefer forward-looking information, so B, predicting the market is more important in investment.

Theoretically, this is true, after all, stock prices are discounted future cash flows. But if you do a backtesting, you will find that you lose the most money when you try to catch the bottom. The core reason is that you don't understand the current state of the market. Buying when you shouldn't be bottom fishing, and always expecting some good news to appear—this is a mistake that both institutions and individuals easily make.

Seizing the opportunity is a very difficult thing, and the key to improving the ability to seize the opportunity is to understand the current state of the market.

Instead of looking forward every day, it is better to understand the current state. Don't hope to replicate at the bottom, just make sure that when you buy at the bottom, you are on the right trend. So personally, I think A is much more important than B.

So, what is the current situation in China's capital markets?
In the second wave,the international investment banks that started shouting to turn around are now starting to take action, and it is estimated that the shouting will become stronger and stronger.

However, it will take time for international buyers to enter, so the voices of international investment banks will become louder. It is precisely because of the slow change in the mindset of domestic buyers that this market will continue to maintain momentum.

Someone boldly predicts Ark $ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$ The fund will gradually increase the proportion of Chinese concept stocks.

The tenth wave of sellersThe Chinese brokerages are the ones that have not yet called for a switch, but they will follow.

Hong Kong's Chinese stock market soared, recording the best month since 2003, as the Hang Seng China Index rose 29% for a month due to the optimistic mood of the reopening.

Don't forget, there is still a big advantage.
In the coming period, I can clearly think of a major benefit that the market may have forgotten, namely the audit issues of China ADRs.

In PCAOB's public statement on August 26 of this year, it is explicitly mentioned that PCAOB will reassess its views on audit issues in China by the end of this year.

In other words, if this wave of upward trend continues until this decision is made, it will not be a big problem.After the decision is made by PCAOB (with a 99% possibility that auditing will no longer be an issue, and then SEC announces that Chinese concept stocks will be removed from the delisting list), foreign capital markets may need to re-evaluate Chinese concept stocks and consider including Chinese concept stocks that need to be reconsidered into their portfolios.

Subsequent returns may come from domestic policy support, but the possibility of support after March is greater.

In summary, sellers will continue to provide excitement during this period and there will be substantial benefits (PCAOB). In addition, investors' thinking and perception change relatively slowly (for example, Ackman may short sell China), so the market will not have problems before the end of the year.

$New Oriental (EDU.US)$

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Norton Symantec : Hi, where i can see this chart? available in investing apps?

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阿姚朋友

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