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Goldman Sachs: 2023 Retail Stock Investment Guide

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Analysts Notebook wrote a column · Dec 13, 2022 15:13
Due to the consistently high inflation and the possibility of recession next year, consumer spending is poised to slow down. Investors may struggle to position themselves in the retail sector. Analysts from Goldman Sachs give out some investment ideas for us.
Goldman Sachs Analyst Kate McShane, who covers hard-line retail companies like toys and appliances, is bullish on those winners in 2022 as they may continue beating the industry in 2023. She prefers companies that have the ability to hold higher prices. The downturn inflation will boost those companies' margins, and later the companies are able to translate a strong cash position into better shareholder returns.
The Analyst Most Favorite Idea for 2023
$Bath & Body Works (BBWI.US)$: given a higher level of new products in stores, increased digital interest, and sales driven by a new loyalty program.
Upgraded
$Best Buy (BBY.US)$: to Neutral from Sell, and raised the TP to $83 from $59. The analyst believes the electronics retailer can improve margins through fiscal 2025 while maintaining market share. In addition, the company will benefit from the demand recovery, making growth easier in 2023.
Downgraded
$Restoration Hardware (RH.US)$: to Sell from Neutral, and cut TP to $215 from $227. The analyst thinks discrtionary durable goods companies will have a tougher time operating as consumer pare back the spending, especially for big-ticket items. So the company's sale is likely remain pressured.
Another Goldman analyst Brooke Roach, who covers soft goods companies like apparel, prefers the companies with strong brand momentum and opportunities to expand their margins.
Upgraded
$Tapestry (TPR.US)$: to Buy from Neutral, and raised TP to $44 from $37. Tapestry's brands—Coach, Stuart Weitzman, and Kate Spade—have momentum among consumers which may lead the stocks to win next year.
$Gap Inc (GPS.US)$: to Buy from Neutral, and raised TP to $18 from $10. The analyst thinks the lower bar in 2022 will help the company outperform next year.
Downgraded
$Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI.US)$: to Neutral from Buy, and cut the TP to $17 from $18.The analyst thinks the trimming orders will hit the sales of the company and weigh on margins, which are already stressed by the high inventories and production costs.
While preference between defensive market share winners and playing offense with discretionary names may shift throughout the year based on positioning/market factors, we see opportunity for idiosyncratic outperformance across many discretionary brands in 2023.”
--- Brooke Roach wrote.
Source: Barrons
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