Warehouse transfer
As I've shared before, the long and short positions I have on hand are about 1 to 1. The short positions are mainly sdow and ery. Today, the stock market has surged, and the NASDAQ has risen a lot. I am very happy.
However, for now, I am still cautious about the stock market. Too high sentiment only worsens inflation. As I mentioned before, inflation has indeed peaked, but there may be a double peak. It has been two months since then, it has risen to test new highs.
If the Fed raises interest rates of 50+25+25, it will end in March next year. However, if inflation continues to rise in March next year, the Federal Reserve will be quite embarrassed. It will have to harden its scalp and raise interest rates, making the hard landing fall a little harder? If the policy makes a major U-turn, it will be fatal to the stock market.
Will inflation rise? It definitely will; it's just a matter of degree. China has weathered the initial panic. With full opening up and economic recovery, there will definitely be a rebound in energy and commodity prices. Unless RMB depreciates, import costs will rise, driving up inflation.
The more important inflation is not a commodity, but a spiral rise in remuneration prices. If the Federal Reserve were this weak, this could no longer be avoided. Major stagflation may return, making the next five or even ten years full of uncertainty.
The following is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice:
1. In 2023, investing in bonds is less risky than the stock market, and the return is likely to be higher. Reference targets: $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Waiting for ETFs, there are still good dividends.
2. The Chinese stock market is in the lead, and it is probable that the increase will exceed that of the US stock market. Reference targets: $iShares MSCI China A ETF (CNYA.US)$ $iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI.US)$
3. The performance of US technology stocks and cyclical stocks is weak
4. Unilateral heavy betting on long and short positions is not recommended. Investments should be diversified and risk hedged. Being bearish doesn't mean you have to go long and short positions.
On my side, the biggest loss recently was Soxs (I made a lot of money in August, now I've lost money). Maybe my opinion is too extreme and runs counter to the market. Sox surged again today, but I have 5% of my SOXS position, so I'm not considering clearing the position for the time being.
Today's operation: I started $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ und $Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (ERY.US)$ They have all adjusted their positions in part and bought TLT. Currently, long and short are about 40% each, and bonds are 15%.
I have bought very few individual stocks, and I have the largest holdings $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ and the second largest holdings $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ They all performed well and were very happy. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ I have very few positions. It's less than 1%. If I fall, I'll drop. Anyway, the lower the price.
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ I have reduced my positions. There are still fewer positions left than in SLA because the company has been slow to lay off employees. Although I don't want my compatriots in large factories to lose their jobs, as a shareholder, I am really disappointed in splitting firewood.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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高贵的阿德莱德 OP : I missed a sentence![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
It should be: Unless RMB depreciates, the depreciation of the US dollar will lead to higher import costs in the US and drive up US inflation.
高贵的阿德莱德 OP : Today's big red stick is going high and low. It's really amazing. Fortunately, I cut my positions a bit in the morning, but I didn't catch up. I think the market's sensitivity to inflation data is declining, and concerns about the recession are rising. You can't just look at CPI and other data to trade stocks.