高贵的阿德莱德 commented on a stock · Dec 15, 2022 23:13

China's rebound is estimated to be about the same

I'm heavy on the Chinese stock market, or leveraged ETF. Yesterday, I guessed that US stocks were going to fall, but I forgot that everyone in the motherland stock market falls like it. Basically, there hasn't been much reduction in positions I paid back some profits today, but I still had to endure the pain and reduce my positions. Currently, the remaining positions left when going long in China are about 15%. tqqq has only 5% left. If it is drawn back tomorrow, it will be cleared. ERY I drastically reduced my position and transferred to FNGD and SOXS for the reason I mentioned before. Currently, the short position is close to 50%, so no more. 20% long, 20% tlt.

Furthermore, I exchanged my 401k pension from money market funds to bonds (S&P to money market in August), so it doesn't count as a position.

The domestic epidemic is progressing a bit rapidly; I really thought it would be this fast. The outbreak of the epidemic is bad news. The funds have found an excuse to withdraw, and this wave of rebound is about to turn around. As I mentioned before, this wave is definitely a rebound in the bear market, not a reversal. If the Chinese stock market wants to reverse the trend, it is estimated that it will bottom out again and not fall below. At that time, the epidemic should have run out of steam.

I held onto the take-profit money first; I didn't buy all of the TLT. Let's check it out first; tlt will probably call back. But I don't think it will fall below the previous low. I also mentioned TLT's investment logic in a previous article. Even if it falls, the risk is much less than the stock market.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$

On the Chinese side, let's wait until the market returns to around 3000, and then go back to the bottom. The Chinese stock market currently has more opportunities than risks, and TLT also has more opportunities than risks. The risks of US stocks outweigh the opportunities. You can short US stocks, but don't get too aggressive. Shorting is exciting, but it's hard to make money.

Not shorting China is my last stubbornness as a Chinese person. I'm just sharing my views, not any investment advice, but I really don't want anyone to short China, especially not now.

Reference targets in China at the bottom:

$iShares MSCI China A ETF(CNYA.US)$

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI.US)$

$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB.US)$

$Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF(ASHR.US)$

Those who want to stimulate and increase leverage:

$Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares(CHAU.US)$

$Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF(YINN.US)$

$Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares ETF(CWEB.US)$

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