AAPL: Should You Ask Santa Claus For A Rally?
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ I am inclined to think that there may be something to the Santa Claus rally. At least history leaves that door open.
The fundamental reasons why Apple stock may outperform around December 25 include:
1. Long-only institutional investors begin establishing positions for the upcoming year, in some cases before the portfolio managers leave the office to enjoy some time off.
2. The post-iPhone launch period of September to November tends to be more bearish for Apple. Late December may be a good time for bargain hunters to start buying the dip.
3. Trading volume is usually lower around the year-end holiday. Any bullishness during this time (remember, AAPL tends to produce positive returns, on average, during any given five-day period) could be magnified when trading volume is low.
That said, I would not make a decision to buy Apple stock solely on the possibility of a Santa Claus rally materializing in the next few days. At best, the calendar may help to nudge a potential investor who had already been considering buying shares for other, more fundamental reasons.
History suggests that, at least when it comes to Apple stock, there may be something to the “Santa Claus rally” legend. Do you think that AAPL is positioned to climb through the end of 2022?
The fundamental reasons why Apple stock may outperform around December 25 include:
1. Long-only institutional investors begin establishing positions for the upcoming year, in some cases before the portfolio managers leave the office to enjoy some time off.
2. The post-iPhone launch period of September to November tends to be more bearish for Apple. Late December may be a good time for bargain hunters to start buying the dip.
3. Trading volume is usually lower around the year-end holiday. Any bullishness during this time (remember, AAPL tends to produce positive returns, on average, during any given five-day period) could be magnified when trading volume is low.
That said, I would not make a decision to buy Apple stock solely on the possibility of a Santa Claus rally materializing in the next few days. At best, the calendar may help to nudge a potential investor who had already been considering buying shares for other, more fundamental reasons.
History suggests that, at least when it comes to Apple stock, there may be something to the “Santa Claus rally” legend. Do you think that AAPL is positioned to climb through the end of 2022?
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