The investment logic in the next few years may change
At last, Japan was unable to withstand it, making it difficult to maintain a loose monetary policy. China wants to ease things, but RMB is not a free currency. Currently, all developed countries are collecting water to curb the expansion through.
I personally think that global inflation is mainly due to two factors, both of which are difficult to eliminate. This also makes it difficult to return to loose monetary policy in the next few years:
1. Anti-globalization. Driven by global markets, material production will automatically shift to labor-rich, low-cost regions, such as China and Southeast Asia. The prices of resource-based commodities will also be automatically optimized to a minimum due to the globalized market. In the anti-globalization process, neither aspect can be optimized. For example, inflation 40 years ago and today is related to crude oil's inability to trade freely. Changes in the relationship between China and the US have also caused some production capacity to flow out of China, making it necessary to seek higher cost alternatives. Things that cost $1 in the US may only be produced in a few minutes in China, while Southeast Asia may achieve low costs, but they may not replace China's production capacity or the integrity of the industrial chain. Anti-globalization will inevitably lead to an irreversible rise in inflation.
2. population. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of people involved in labor in the US has declined sharply. For details, see Powell's original statement; I just brought it. China's lifting of the blockade will also cause the same problems. As the labor force shrinks, the labor market is bound to be tight, and the spiral rise in wages and prices is difficult to control.
Unless inflation is left unchecked, we will continue to be in an environment of high interest rates for the next few years. So, the investment logic has changed. Companies that rely on financing to grow should be cautious. Stay away from an enterprise that relies on financing to sustain its life. You can take 0.1% of the position and bet that it will not go bankrupt, but speculation is not an investment.
As for investment, I personally think that the yield of stock market investment may not be much higher than that of bonds, yet the risk will be much higher than that of bonds. I will continue to invest $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Even if it falls back to around 90, the lower it is, the more opportunities there are. The lower, the higher the dividend rate.
And the one I least recommend is $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK.US$ 。 Seeing the reality clearly, are there still few active funds that have gone bankrupt? You can speculate in the short term as a rebound, but don't use arkk as an investment.
In terms of indices, there is a high probability that S&P and the Dow will outperform the NASDAQ in the next few years after the Dow's insane growth returns to normal. Speculation doesn't matter. I'm going to invest more where the risk is lower.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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只若初见 : Institutions are shorting US debt
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 只若初见 : TLT is bearish in the short term, but may not be able to fall below previous lows. I've also put in some downstream protection. After a fall, there will also be a rebound from a super-drop. Look at stable earnings in the long run.
Up 10 Down 20 : The general public agreed that the certainty of US debt is higher than that of the stock market. Do you think it's possible for JP to carry it hard? Will structural labor shortages underpin the employment rate during the recession, thereby giving the Fed the strength to continue to maintain expectations of interest rate hikes and suppress bond prices?
高贵的阿德莱德 OP Up 10 Down 20 : There is a possibility that JP will not be able to handle the long-term, nor will the US be able to maintain high interest rates. Innovation is the future direction of development. The continued interest rate hike you mentioned is also possible, but if it happens, the stock market will probably run out of trouble