How much is Tesla worth?

1) The uncertainty of short-term global demand has risen, and the recession of global economies has affected the global demand for new energy vehicles, so Tesla has also been greatly affected. Since the second quarter of this year, the gap between Tesla's production and sales has continued to expand, which actually shows that the current constraints on Tesla's delivery have shifted from production to demand.

2) Musk continues to sell Tesla shares, putting pressure on Tesla's stock price. According to data disclosure, Musk's shareholding ratio has dropped from 22.4% at the beginning of the year to 19.4%. At the same time, Musk still has a relatively high proportion of Tesla shares pledged, superimposed on the recent sharp drop in stock prices, Musk needs to sell shares to supplement the pledge margin, forming a vicious circle.

Tesla's Q3 global delivery volume was 343,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 42.43%, and a month-on-month increase of 35%, which was lower than market expectations of 357,900 vehicles. According to the data disclosed by the company, its production volume in Q3 exceeded the delivery volume by 22,100 vehicles, which also hinted at the possible oversupply of Tesla, so Tesla has recently continued to conduct price wars to digest inventory, but this also affected Tesla's gross profit margin.(the gross profit margin of Tesla's auto business in Q3 was 27.9%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year)

Tesla’s delivery volume in Q4 is expected to be between 350,000 and 370,000 vehicles, but the gross profit margin is expected to decline month-on-month, to about 26%. The decline in gross profit margin will affect Tesla’s net profit margin and single-car profit. Tesla’s single-car profit is US$9,600 per vehicle, and the gross profit margin of two percentage points will affect Tesla’s single-vehicle profit of US$1,200 per vehicle. So Tesla’s single-car profit in Q4 is expected to be approximately US$8,400 per vehicle. The subsequent continuous price reduction of lithium carbonate may alleviate the impact of the price war to a certain extent.

1. Optimistic expectations: Due to the continuous decline in the price of upstream raw material lithium carbonate and the optimization of the competition pattern of OEMs, Tesla restarted a new wave of growth. It is expected that the overall market can be valued at 30 times (basically the same as Tesla’s subsequent performance growth) At the same time, Tesla’s net profit in 2023 can reach 16.5 billion US dollars (corresponding to a slight increase in bicycle profit to 10,000 US dollars per vehicle). At this time, Tesla’s market value is 495 billion US dollars, corresponding to a stock price of 156 US dollars.

2. Neutral estimate: Tesla maintains the status quo, grows slowly, and increases paid business revenue. The price cuts of upstream raw materials will offset some of the impact of Tesla’s price cuts, but the profit of single vehicles will still decline slightly. At this time, Tesla’s net profit is expected in 2023 It is 15.8 billion U.S. dollars, with a valuation of 20-25 times, corresponding to a market value of 316-395 billion U.S. dollars, and a stock price range of 100-125 U.S. dollars. You can sell high and buy low, but the position below 20 times (100 U.S. dollars) is more comfortable .

3. Under extreme pessimism, according to sensitivity calculations, Tesla’s net profit of US$15 billion in 2023, 15 times PE (valuation of mature US stocks), and a stock price of US$71.57.

1) Musk stated that the reduction of holdings is suspended, and there is not much room for future reductions: From the perspective of absolute shareholding ratio, Musk’s personal shareholding in Tesla has dropped from 22.4% at the beginning of the year to 19.4%, about half of which It was pledged, that is, even if Musk is reducing his holdings again, the space for reducing his holdings is relatively limited.

2) The U.S. IRA bill will be implemented in January next year: the bill removes the vehicle cap of 200,000 new energy vehicles in the U.S., and Tesla’s subsequent models will enjoy consumer tax relief ($7,500) and battery cost subsidies (battery cells $35/KWH, battery pack $10/KWH). In addition, the IRA also has a subsidy for new energy commercial vehicles. Tesla's heavy truck Semi will receive a subsidy of US$40,000. At the same time, the IRA will provide household energy storage with a 30% tax deduction on purchase costs and a deduction of $40 per kilowatt for photovoltaic equipment. That is to say, Tesla's poor sales in the United States may also be due to the wait-and-see attitude of some consumers, who want to wait for the subsidy to be implemented before purchasing cars, and some demand has been delayed.

3) The price of lithium carbonate has dropped sharply, which is conducive to alleviating the cost pressure of new energy vehicle manufacturers and hedging the impact of price wars in the industry of vehicle manufacturers.

1. If next year's performance guidance is above 1.72 million (estimated to deliver around 1.27 million this year), it means that Tesla's growth rate can still be maintained at a level above 35%.At the same time, Tesla's single-vehicle net profit is above 10,000, which shows that Tesla's scale effect and the price reduction of upstream raw material costs can ensure that Tesla's overall profitability will increase against the trend.At this time, if there is a buying opportunity at around 20 times the valuation (corresponding to $100), investors should resolutely buy Tesla shares.

2. If next year's performance guidance is at the level of 1.66-1.72 million (corresponding to a growth rate of about 30-35%), investors should be cautious at this time.Investors also need to refer to Tesla's single-vehicle profitability in Q4 of 2022.If the net profit per vehicle is above 9,600 yuan, it means that Tesla's scale effect and the price reduction of upstream raw material costs can offset the impact of Tesla's price reduction.At this time, investors can still choose an opportunity to buy in the valuation range of 15-20 times (80-100 US dollars).

3. Elsewhere Investors Should Wait .