How Tech's Defiance of Economic Gravity Came to an Abrupt End
In the worst year for stocks since the Great Recession, several big names are headed for their worst year on record with just one trading day left in 2022.
In 2022 tech's luck ran out. Tech's five giants have collectively lost a dizzying $3trn in market value.
The most dramatic loser is $Meta Platforms (META.US)$. Nearly two-thirds of its value was wiped out, leaving its market capitalisation at just over $300bn.
Here are several causes of the end of tech exceptionalism:
1. Competition
For years tech was synonymous with concentrated markets, but these days competition is fierce. Part of the reason for Meta's pain was that new rivals, particularly TikTok, caused the first-ever drop in user numbers at Facebook.
Tech firms are also trespassing more on each other's turf. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$'s cloud-computing arm has seen a sharp slowdown in growth, partly because Google is pouring billions into its own cloud service, taking big losses in order to gain a toehold in the business.
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$, which for years had streaming virtually to itself, now faces competition not just from $Disney (DIS.US)$ and $Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.US)$ but from $Apple (AAPL.US)$ and Amazon.
2. Digital Ads Market
Tech groups are fighting harder than ever for a share of the $300 billion digital ads market, even as companies worldwide are cutting their ad budgets in response to rising interest rates and high inflation.
Advertising is the lifeblood of Alphabet and Meta, and a growing sideline for Amazon, Apple and $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$. Meta and Alphabet have lost their dominance over the digital advertising market they have ruled for years, as the duopoly is hit by fast-growing competition from rivals.
The share of US ad revenues held by Meta and Google owner Alphabet is projected to fall by 2.5 percentage points to 48.4 per cent this year, the first time the two groups will not hold a majority share of the market since 2014, according to research group Insider Intelligence.
3. Semiconductors
Over the past two years the supply of chips has built up as manufacturers have added capacity. But just as chip production bloomed, demand withered, thanks to falling sales of s and smartphones. Further pain was caused by the collapse of the cryptoverse, which meant miners of digital currencies no longer needed the advanced processors built by $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ two big chipmakers.
These difficulties mean that the year ahead will be a lean one in techland. Most have made a resolution to trim their costs, which in many cases means cutting the payroll. Tech firms worldwide have announced more than 150,000 job cuts so far in 2022.
Source: The economist, Insider Intelligence, Layoffs.fyi
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